Tuesday June 10 picks

Race 1

#5 ELUDE has everything you want to see in a first-time starter – plenty of works, trainer that
wins with 24% of his debuters, terrific pedigree and a $300,000 price tag as a yearling. He won’t
offer much value at 6-5 on the morning line but he appears to be a very legitimate favorite. #3
ONLY BY INVITATION overcame a bad start and an outside post to finish second in his debut.
He should improve in his second start today and has the pedigree to be even better on turf. #1
FINISHLION is another first-time starter with solid works and a turf pedigree. #6 LORD RAFA ran some good races here last summer and is finally getting back to the turf after struggling on dirt this year. #4 OUR CHIEF JUSTICE was third in his debut here last year and may improve as he makes his 3yo debut.

Race 2

Three of the top choices here come from the same last race but the result could be quite different
today. #5 THE BOHEMIAN should move way up today in the second start off a winter break – a
repeat of a successful pattern from last year. He’s perfect at the distance and always runs well at
Colonial for a very successful trainer/jockey combination. #8 ROI DE VIOLETTE also goes
second off the layoff and also loves this track. Owner/trainer Gaston Sandoval is 0 for 2008 but was terrific here last summer and has a great shot to get on the board today. #9 MISSING BLUE beat The Bohemian and Roi de Violette last time and certainly wouldn’t be a shock to repeat but he had a recency edge and got a rail trip that day. He draws the far outside today and faces fitter opponents. #6 BELLE’S BROKER has been off form lately but can win this on his best day.

Race 3

#1 SPIRITOFSTEELE had everything go wrong last month in his career debut. The turf-bred colt debuted in the slop after the race was rained off the turf and suffered a rough trip to boot. He gets turf today, which combined with the drop to state-bred competition should be just the tonic. #6 VIRGINIA HERO also gets turf for the first time today and certainly has the pedigree to take the needed step forward at a square price. #2 PLYMOUTH ROCK will be a fairly heavy favorite off two bang-up races at Colonial last summer but he’s been off over 10 months and doesn’t appear to have much early speed. He certainly can win but a late-closing second or third that sets him up well for a stretch-out next time may be more likely.

Race 4

The first baby race of the season is nicely positioned at the beginning of the pick-4 so we can see
how they look in the flesh before taking the plunge. #1 IKE shows a nice string of works in
preparation for his debut and the Virginia-bred is confidently spotted against open company
instead of against fellow state-breds in either of the two restricted maiden races today. #5 MR.
KEEPER and #6 HI HO BAMBINO both hail from the Hamilton Smith barn, the most consistently successful first time out trainer at Colonial. Mr. Keeper has worked better than his stablemate but both merit respect today. #3 COUNT ON LOU also has high profile connections in trainer Ferris Allen and jockey Horacio Karamanos and shows a promising work tab as well.

Race 5

This race has blowup written all over it. The two favorites both have some pretty big flaws and
most of the double-digit price horses have some chance. #8 CAT ON THE MOON always runs
well at Colonial and is only a few lengths slower than the favorites on turf. She should improve in
her second start off the layoff and will be at least he 10-1 morning line price. #7 WHAT WILL BE
has been freshened for this meet like many from this barn are and would be no surprise. The price will be very short, however, and she just doesn’t have that big of edge on this field to accept less than 5-2. #6 PERSIPANNY ROAD ran well here several times last year and seems likely to relish the distance. #5 GOLD N’ VELVET wins this on her best day but a layoff, class drop and short price are all turnoffs.

Race 6

#7 CAROLINA WOLF ran well enough to win this last fall as a 2-year-old. Now 3 with a decent
prep under her belt and a little class relief, she looks like a rock solid favorite. #6 GO AWESOME
SERENA made a big move last time before flattening out in the stretch. She gets a big drop in
class and adds Lasix, a powerful combination that should wake her up today. #1 FINAL REPORT finished just behind Go Awesome Serena last time and still possesses some upside in just third lifetime start. #4 P J STAR makes her debut at 1 1/8-miles, never an easy task, but trainer John Melton has won before with a similar move and she’ll be a big price.

Race 7

#6 TOP TIME finds a perfect spot to rebound after losing her rider last time. She always runs well at Colonial, adores this distance, fits perfectly at this class and should get enough pace up front to set up her potent late run. #1 GREELEYLIKEALADY hasn’t run a bad race on turf in a long time and fits this starter allowance condition snugly. She should be able to save all the ground from post 1 and is a very live contender with a good trip. #2 SUGAR BOOGER ran a terrific race last time out, overcoming post 11 and draws inside today. She had been bad all year before that race so there is some concern that she can string together two straight quality races. #3 LADY ELAINE will probably be on the lead at a huge price to give her backers a cheap thrill at least and possibly hang on to spice up what looks like an otherwise chalky trifecta.

Race 8

#6 CHASING THE PRIZE could win this race by 15 lengths if he’s even close to as good as he
used to be. However, he did get beaten at 3-5 when last seen and that was 11 months ago. He has been working steadily for his return and Karamanos returns so it would appear that all systems are go. #5 APRIL DANCER tired badly after setting a suicidal past last time out but the drop back to six furlongs should help what looks like an improved horse.

Race 9

#5 SPIRIT OF SECRETS didn’t show much while splitting the field in his debut but he adds Lasix and takes the plunge into the maiden claiming ranks today. Improvement is likely and dramatic improvement is well within the realm of possibility at a big price. #4 SACRED SKY lays over this field off his last two races but those were on turf and his dirt record is quite ordinary. He can win but will be a dramatic underlay as a short-priced favorite. #1 THE REDFOX was a solid third against similar in his debut and has every right improve today in his second start. #7 LEGATANGO fits well off three decent races against big fields at Tampa but must overcome a two-month layoff and a long history of Tampa invaders struggling at Colonial.