Saturday June 28 picks

Race 1

#6 TAKE ME DOWNTOWN ran a creditable fifth in her turf debut last time. That was against tougher and a pretty big stretch-out off a string of sprint races. The drop in class and distance should be all she needs for a career best today. #7 CAT ON THE MOON has a significant speed figure and class edge and has run well at both this course and distance on multiple occasions but the 7-5 favorite is wheeling back in just six days. #2 RUPUNZEL is significantly better on turf and gets a nice class drop today. She’s never tried two-turns but is bred to handle the extra distance. #1 MAY MAY’S GUMBO is much better on turf and pretty clearly fits here despite the weak recent dirt form.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 6 w/ 1,2,7

Race 2

#5 NEON LIGHTS is one of several similarly talented horses in this wide-open race but is the only runner with any inclination to go the lead so this may just set up as a perfect opportunity to steal the race. #8 BETTER THAN LUCK and #9 SEBASTIAN’S BREW finished a half-length apart at this same level last time. Both suffered from wide trips but Better Than Luck had even more trouble that day. #7 KAMANTE has been off for two years but he should be fit after running second in a two-mile training race earlier this spring. He may not be good enough but that 20-1 price makes him intriguing. #4 HEROS AMONG US ran well enough to win this the last time he was on the flat.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 5,8,9 w/ 4,7 w/ 1,7

Race 3

#7 AFFIRMATION ran really well in her turf debut to get second against tougher competition. She got caught in a three-wide duel to lose all chance in her next start and then didn’t handle dirt most recently. She doesn’t seem like a need the lead type and should be able to tuck into a stalking trip today with speed inside and outside out her. #4 IRISH CHESTNUT has run a couple of races that fit very well here and should get a nice pace setup today. #6 SEVEN TWO OFFSUIT narrowly lost at this same level last time after dueling most of the way. She clearly fits at this level and has every right to rebound today. #1 HOLY AKADYA stretches out to what her pedigree suggests is the ideal distance.

Suggested Bet: Exacta box – 7 w/ 1,4,6

Race 4

#7 COURSE LITE should get a perfect stalking trip racing a couple of lengths behind what projects to be a very fast pace. He’s been very good at this distance this year and takes an appropriate price cut for his first try against n3L foes. #1 PASCO GETTLE was very impressive winning on lead going longer last time. He may be a touch better going a mile than this kind of dash but he does have a course and distance win under his belt and has proven to be willing to rate. #2 MR. INVISIBLE has been facing tougher in entry-level allowances and finally draws inside after wide posts in his last two turf races. #5 INISH SHANK will get the right setup but he’s never gone this short so you have to wonder if this is more of a prep off a nine-month layoff.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 1,7 w/ 5,9 w/ 4,7,9 w/ 9,13

Race 5

#5 PERFORMER’S IMAGE just missed after taking a late lead two weeks at this same condition. The 3yo was drawn at the extreme outside that day and should improve with post 5 today. #9 BRIGHT DYNAMITE has run three straight solid races at this level and has the pedigree to appreciate today’s switch to turf. #8 JUNOOD was just behind Performer’s Image two weeks and is the field’s only multiple winner. He may improve in his second race back on the flat after a nice string of races over fences this spring. #4 ROSEVILLE RUN improved dramatically last time to break his maiden, running fast enough to handle the huge jump to facing winners today. #10 BAVARIAN has been facing much tougher starter allowance foes but may be wide from post 10 and too close to a fast pace.

Suggested bet: Trifecta – 5w/ 4,8,9 w/ 4,8,9,10

Race 6

#9 Rostebaran was probably best last out, finishing a valiant second despite being trapped behind an insanely slow pace. He’s obviously an improving horse that was unlucky to end up in this spot instead of an easier MSW that was cancelled last Saturday. #7 GOLDEN ORBIT was a decent fourth behind impressive maiden winner C Street last time – we’ve already seen one well beaten horse in that race come back to win. #4 CREW showed a lot of talent in his first start, making a big move on the turn before flattening out in the stretch. Tiring late was certainly understandable for a horse debuting at 1 1/8-miles while carrying 140 pounds. With added fitness and 25 fewer pounds he should be much better today. #14 RAJASTHAN is a reasonable favorite after several close calls against tougher but post 14 can be awfully tough to overcome in a competitive field. #10 POPLAR GROVE was 4-wide behind a slow pace last time. He’ll be right there if he runs back to an excellent second two races back.

Suggested bet: Trifecta - 7,9 w/ 4,7,9 w/ 4,7,9, 14

Race 7

#13 RIVER OF VOWS beat Jigalong on the dirt. Turf is a whole new ballgame but he’s a half-sister to All Along Stakes (gr. III) winner Secret River so she should be even better on the lawn. #9 JIGALONG freaked in his turf debut last time to break his maiden by nine lengths. A repeat of that performance would be extremely tough to beat today. #12 LORD SNOOTY looked great in April with a maiden win over a next-out winner in his American debut. He bombed last time out but European horses often decline in their second stateside starts before rebounding in the future. #7 ELCHASE wired maidens going 1 ¼ miles last time and should get another easy lead today. This is certainly a tougher field but he’s the one they all have to catch.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 9,13 w/ 4 w/ 1,3,7,8,9,11

Race 8

#4 FRISKY THUNDER has been sensational this year. He couldn’t have been more impressive in thrashing many of these in the John D. Marsh Stakes last time and may be even better stretching back out to two-turns. #1 PLEASANT STRIKE was a graded stakes winner last year who should find state-bred company to his liking but he’s been well beaten in his last two starts so current form is an open question. #12 RUN THE LIGHT won this race two years ago and has been good over fences in his second career. If he handles the return to the flat he’ll be very tough today. #3 MOUNT WEATHER crushed entry-level allowance foes on opening week. He seems to be in peak form and would be no surprise to improve on his third-place finish in the 2007 Van Clief.

Suggested bet: Win - 4

Race 9

#3 UNCANNY NIKOL finally gets back to turf after both her 2008 starts were taken off the grass. She ran very well to get second in her lone turf start and should be even now with two races under her belt as a 3yo. #1 ENGLISH ROSE ran well enough to win this in each of her last three races but its tough to take a short price on her when she’s lost ground in the stretch in every one of her races. #7 QUEEN RIO ran evenly in her debut but should improve in her second lifetime start. #8 ACT LIKE A QUEEN showed nothing in her debut but is bred to go longer and has been working well for her 3yo bow. #9 KITTY CAT EXPRESS has been working well for her debut. Her very hot trainer obviously wants turf after scratching her from an off-the-turf maiden race last Sunday. #11 VILLACORA has been just OK in two dirt tries but the $200,000 weanling buy will certainly be given every opportunity to find her niche and is bred for the turf.

Suggested bet: Exacta – 3 w/ 1,7,8,9,11