Saturday August 2 picks

Race 1

#3 LIPSOFANANGEL showed speed in her dirt debut and is bred to improve on turf. #2 FIRST COLONY is the most experienced filly in the race with three solid races under her belt. She will almost certainly be in the mix today. #7 TEQUILA AT SUNSET has a good win-early pedigree and shows some solid works for her debut. #6 HOME RUN STAR should improve with a better break.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 3 w/ 2,6,7

Race 2

#3 BLUES APPROVAL looks like a rock-solid favorite. She’s run two good seconds in a row against tougher competition and is as well positioned as anyone to take advantage of the expected slow pace. #7 BRIGANTINE QUEEN seemed to find her level with a dominant maiden score last time. #8 KETTLE RUN should finish stronger today in her second start of the cycle.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 3 w/ 1,2,4,5 w/ 1,4,8

Race 3

#1 WILD DEBUTANTE makes her first start for trainer Earl Begley, who’s winning with 44% of such races and 50% overall at Colonial. Also interesting to see that James Vail lands here instead of Begley’s other entry, #4 ANGEL I B, who won good 2x allowance here on Monday. It’s good to see #5 APPEAL TO THE CITY return relatively quickly from an eventful most recent race.

Suggested bet: Win - 1

Race 4

#4 AFFIRMATION has run a lot faster than any of her rivals today. The only real concern on the 7-5 favorite is that she’s never gone this short before. #1A TIGERS CAMP looks like a live first-time starter with an excellent turf sprint pedigree. #8 YOUR HONOR showed speed in two dirt races and was completely taken out of her game by getting pinched at the start of her lone turf try.

Suggested bet: Pick- 4 – 1,4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 7 w/ 1,5,9

Race 5

#4 LOST ONE’S HALO actually ran quite well in his lone turf start, making a big middle move before fading late in a true key race. He shortens up and has the perfect stalking style for this speed-crazed race. #8 JAKE RATTLE N ROLL should move forward in his second start off a brief layoff. #2 NAN’S REAL LOVE was a dominant maiden winner here but may get caught in a duel today.

Suggested bet: Win - 4

Race 6

#7 SO VAIN was only beaten a head by Glamorous Gal in her debut. Glamorous Gal came back to win an open stake by 4½ lengths. So Vain does need to prove she can run as well on dirt but she’s worked well over. #5 HOLY OKIE DOKIE has been working brilliantly for a good first-out trainer. #6 PERFECT PET has the best dirt form of the experienced runners.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 5,7

Race 7

#5 DDTAXWHATUWANT was bottled up the entire stretch run last time. She deserves another chance at a big price. #1 GIANNA’S PRINCESS is a logical favorite who has been close several times at this level. #9 TRICK BUSTER ran a huge race to get second in a VA-bred stakes last time. A repeat would make her very tough here.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 5 w/ 1,9

Race 8

#5 CELTIC INNIS was very impressive winning this race two years ago and should be even stronger than usual in the stretch after two two-turn races. #4 CHASIN TIGER got really good last fall. He’s been off since February but has been working brilliantly for his return. #9 SPRINGS ROAD is an improving 3yo with plenty of upside.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4,5,9

Race 9

#7 MISS MAY and #13 INNOVATIVE finished a nose apart in 3^rd and 4^th in the Glamorous Gal/So Vain race. #4 ADARE is a half to a G3 turf winner and has been working well for his debut. #9 MISS PAM has a great win-early pedigree and the $140k purchase has been working well.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 7 w/ 4,9,13

Friday August 1 picks

Race 1

#3 RAISINABOVEONLY should finish much better today as he’s cutting back in distance and adding Lasix, which is crucial in a race with a plethora of early speed. #6 PROWLING TIGRESS has been working well for her debut and possesses a great turf pedigree. #4 KARLI’S NO DEVIL has shown plenty of talent but may be part of the pace war. Ditto for #1 SATIN BLUE.

Suggested bet: Daily Double – 3,6 w/ 1,4,6

Race 2

The annual amateur rider’s race is always a unique handicapping puzzle. #4 IN PURSUIT OF LOVE drops in class and is the only one with success carrying the extra weight they’ll face today. #1 MR. JONES may get an easy lead and be tough to run down. #6 IDLE CASH gets the only rider with a win in 2008.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 1,4,6 w/ 2,5,6,8 w/ 1

Race 3

#5 GATOR AT THE GATE was caught wide from post 12 in his last turf sprint. He’s drawn much better today and should appreciate shortening up after tiring going a mile last time. #6 WAVE WARRIOR drops in class and shortens up. #8 DANERIC should be close to an easier pace than he’s faced in his last two. #2 SUNDAY PROPECTOR should be fitter in his second start of the year.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 5 w/ 2,6,8

Race 4

#1 WAP showed great improvement with blinkers added last time, dueling for the lead and holding on reasonably well for fifth at 49-1. This looks like an easier spot and he’s not a need the lead kind of horse so any pace scenario should suit. #6 RIVANNA has a couple of solid sprint tries under her belt. Stretching out for her third start of the year may spark improvement today.

Suggested bet: Pick- 4 – 1 w/ 3,5,8 w/ 4,5 w/ 4,5,6,8

Race 5

#3 ADARE YOU may well get the lead in a relatively paceless race. She ran well last time to save fifth after bolting. Hopefully the addition of blinkers will cure that problem. #8 FOXYS PERMISO made a big move to take the lead but understandably tired to third last time in her first race around two-turns. She should be sharper today. #5 LACECAP will be flying late once again.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 3,5,8

Race 6

#5 BOPOLENE has been terrific this season. She should get perfect trip sitting off a torrid speed duel and getting the jump on the favorite. #4 DEBBIE SUE is easily the most accomplished horse in here and she’s in peak form. However, she’s clearly better around two-turns and may just run out of ground here. #1 CITI CHARISSE is the speed of the speed but there should be company early.

Suggested bet: Win - 5

Race 7

#5 TRIPLEKIN and #8 I’M A HOKIE finished noses apart in a similar spot last time and should be even more effective today with what looks like an inevitable pace duel. #4 BLINK AND DANCE rated nicely last time after running off in his two previous starts. If he can do it again he’ll be right back in the mix. #6 HALF MASK has been sprinting but actually ran his best race around two turns.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 4,5,6,8 w/ 3,4 w/ 5,6

Race 8

#3 SHANNON H shortens up and returns to the main track. She looks best equipped to handle this elongated sprint. #4 HURRICANE CAROUSEL was a good second in a similar spot last time and does have a win at this distance.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 3,4

Race 9

#6 CREOLE BEAT has been racing very well against tougher and should have no problem switching back to the main track tonight. He’ll most likely be on the lead and prove too tough to run down. #5 COOL DAYS looms the major threat switching a surface that’s much more conducive to his style. #4 FINAL SCRIPT should also sit a nice stalking trip and be a stretch factor.

Suggested bet: Trifecta – 5,6 w/ 4,5,6 w/ 2,3,4,5,6

Tuesday July 29 picks

Race 1

#5 REMEMBERTHECOWGIRL already has a win at this level and looks primed to score right back. #1 DOOTS almost always runs well at Colonial and is a perfectly legitimate favorite. #6 NIGERIA stretches out after a couple of good sprint efforts. She may be better around two turns. #3 SEA OF GALILEE is dangerous stretching back out to her best distance.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 5 w/ 1,3,6

Race 2

#6 CHEQUERED ROSE ran extremely well last time at a huge price. You won’t get that price again but she’s got a great shot to get there today. #7 BARCELONA LIGHT ran well in both turf starts and should be tough with a clean trip today.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 6,7 w/ 3,4,8 w/ 1,9

Race 3

#8 BEDROCK BELLE has run well enough to win this and should be primed for her best in her second start off the layoff. #4 SWEETEST SIN should be closing late for at least a piece. #3 MS LORA broke her maiden impressively last time.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 3,4,8

Race 4

#9 SMILEY JANE ran a good third for $15,000 last time. Dropping to $7,500 second off the layoff should make her doubly tough today. #1 GRANT ME SUNSHINE could prove tough to run down if she can steal away to an easy lead. #6 CHALICE BEARER shows a couple of nice works in preparation for her debut.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 1,9 w/ 4,7 w/ 8,10 w/ 5,10

Race 5

#4 ROBYNS ANTHEM was a good fourth in an allowance last out, the first time she’s been off the board in four Colonial starts. She should get back on track on the drop today. #7 HOME BEFOR MIDNITE will be very tough to beat if she runs as well as she did in Florida this spring. #2 CRAZY LIKE A FOX could improve stretching out off a decent third going shorter.

Suggested bet: Exacta – 4,7 w/ 2,47

Race 6

#10 CHUCK’S PRIDE has a substantial speed figure edge. The slight class drop is perfectly appropriate. #8 MACH Z was a solid third against state-bred maiden special weight company her last two. The drop to $7,500 should serve her well. #11 NANA’S AVA could improve enough with the surface switch to make an impact here.

Suggested bet: Win - 10

Race 7

#5 ABSQUATULATE just missed after setting a strong pace last time. #10 FREE CLASS beat Absquatulate by a neck last time but moves a good post position to the outside today. #12 NOTABLE TIGER has been agonizingly close his last two. He certainly deserves a win before the meet ends.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 5,10 w/ 1,2,3 w/ 3,5,6

Race 8

#3 APROMISEBYTOMORROW ran well enough to win this last time and should actually improve off that performance in his second start off the claim. #1A PUNCHINTINA should be tough with the return to her preferred dirt surface. #2 ABID’S LOVE is the wild card after a year-long layoff. She’s obviously good enough if she can shake off the rust.

Suggested bet: Win - 3

Race 9

#5 PRISSY PROXY looks well spotted for her debut by a good first-out trainer. #6 GIN LOVING LUCY has been training well for her debut and gets the leading trainer and jockey. #3 IN THE OTHER makes her debut for a trainer who has already won three juvenile races at the meet.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 3,5,6

Sunday July 27 picks

Race 1

#1A CICISBEO is a true horse for course – 6 for 9 at Colonial and 1 for 34 outside of New Kent. Why bet against him here? #1 SIDE BUSTER is a legitimate contender in his own right. #2 SUPER STRUGGLER has been racing competitively against much tougher and is the value of the race at 4-1. #3 PEACE ROCK steps up off a good win for dangerous connections.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1 w/ 2,3,4

Race 2

#5 KEY UNION just missed at this level last time. He shouldn’t be a maiden much longer. #3 THE ONE TO CHASE is aptly named as the likely favorite. He takes a huge class drop today and obviously good enough to win. #1 THE BOY FROM BRAY failed as the favorite last time but drops back to his best distance today.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 3,5 w/ 2,5,8 w/ 4,11

Race 3

#5 VICARIOUS FLIGHT has run two quality races at Colonial against tougher than average competition for the price. He’s very dangerous first off the claim, 39% move for Feliciano. #8 UNADULTERATED deserves another chance on turf after stumbling at the start in his only previous grass race. #2B MALA MALA CAT should move forward today in his second start off a layoff.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 2,5,8

Race 4

#11 DYNAMITE KING plunges in class after tiring badly in his debut. He’s extremely dangerous shortening up in his second lifetime start, especially coming from a barn that rarely wins first time out. #4 DISTINCTIVE RIDGE has a substantial speed figure and class edge but 4-5 is a little short for an 0 for 20 horse.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 –11 w/ 1,2,3 w/ 3,10 w/ 1,3,4,5

Race 5

#2 GATORNATION won easily when last seen at this level then was a good fourth when jumped all the way to allowance company last time. #3 TUCKLINO just missed on dirt last time and is probably a touch better on turf. #1 DR. STICK should have the lead all to himself. He’ll be tough to reel in if he handles the lawn in his turf debut.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1,2,3

Race 6

#3 SCRUB ISLAND was just a half-length behind Final Report in her turf debut. The lightly-raced 3yo filly has enough upside to make up that cap, especially with a better post position than that rival. #10 FINAL REPORT is due for a win after two straight solid seconds at this level. #11 I AM THE QUEEN has been second on third in half her 18 lifetime starts. Today should be no different.

Suggested bet: Trifecta – 3,10 w/ 3,10,11 w/ 3,7,10,11

Race 7

#1 LEAR HEIGHTS was beaten just 1½ lengths by an atypically strong field last time. He fits nicely here and should save all the ground from the rail. #4 IN MEMORYOFAFRIEND ran well last time and returns to his favorite distance today. #5 POLISH DYNAMITE disappointed as the favorite last time but was a very good fourth against tougher two back. #3 HENRY R. should be closing late.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 1,3,4,5 w/ 4,5 w/ 6,9

Race 8

#5 ROCKABY BABY has been first or second in five straight races, including a strong score over a next-out winner on July 5 here. #4 PLEASANT STRIKE was flying late to just miss in a Virginia-bred stake but the form of that race took a hit when the winner came back to lose as a very heavy favorite. Pleasant Strike obviously got more than enough talent to win this nonetheless.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 4,5

Race 9

#9 GIMME THE GOLD overcame a wide-trip from post 12 to be a decent third in her 2008 debut. She should be stronger today and has enough turf pedigree to suggest the surface switch may play in her favor. #6 UNCANNY NIKOL should appreciate the cutback to her first turf sprint.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 6,9

Saturday July 26 picks

Race 1

#4 RUNNING IN REALITY can win this with his best and has every right to improve substantially with a better post position and slight cutback in distance for his second start off a long layoff. #5 ALLERGEE seems to have found his level and should be primed in the third start of the bench. #6 QUIET DECISION was third in a productive race last time. Today’s stretchout could help.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 4 w/ 1,5,6

Race 2

#10 PATAPSCO COMMANDER was very game to get up the last stride last time. He should get even more pace to run at today. #6 JEALOUSLY should be finishing well again today. #1 KRIS N HITCH caught a tougher than average field last time and ran well in his two prior races. #3 HUCKLEBERRYPJONES ran a winning race two back and certainly fits here

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 10 w/ 1,3,6

Race 3

#7 GLORY CAT hasn’t run a bad race on turf yet. He was caught behind a slow pace last time and should get much more speed to run at today. #13 MAKE WAYFOR NORMAN ran a huge race last time, winning the duel but succumbing in the final strides. He’d be awfully tough to beat with a better post position but going from the rail that day to post 13 today is a huge switch.

Suggested bet: Win – 7

Race 4

#5 ROI DE VIOLETTE wheels back just six days after a nice starter allowance win. He’s 4 for 5 at Colonial, including two straight wins with amazing late rallies. #1 LOVE CONQUERS flattened out in his first start off the layoff but may move forward off that race today. #2 OUR CAT has been running well against tough starter allowance foes at Arlington.

Suggested bet: Pick- 4 – 1,2,5,8 w/ 1,4,5 w/ 5,7 w/ 8

Race 5

#1 ROSTEBARAN finally broke through last time after some adventurous journeys around the Secretariat Turf Course. This appears to his best distance and Karamanos stays aboard. #4 KIM’S DIXIE TUNE acquitted himself well against good starter allowance types last time. #5 STORMING VOW was 2^nd to a very tough winner two back and got the job done at a too-short distance last time.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1 w/ 4,5

Race 6

#5 HONEY’S MEADOW should sit a perfect trip stalking the early duel. She’s perfect at this distance and obviously sharp right now. #7 SHAKY’S PRIZE fits the same bill if she handles turf. #1 FESTIVE MOMENT and #4 SEVEN TWO OFFSUIT were both impressive n2L winners last time but both do their best running on the lead and may compromise each other’s chances today.

Suggested bet: Win – 5

Race 7

#8 CAPTAIN BRY ran extremely well in both of his starts, stamping himself as one of the best 2yos on the grounds. #4 SABINO was awfully impressive last time and is certainly bred to handle the switch to grass. #5 KENTUCKY STORMIN ran an amazing race to get second last time despite bolting on the turn. There’s plenty of upside if he can run straight.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 8 w/ 4,8,9 w/ 4,8,10

Race 8

#4 YO ELEVEN couldn’t handle graded stakes last time but looked good breaking her maiden and draws a much better post today. #9 PASSUM PATTIE broke her maiden in fast time and is bred to run at least as well on turf. #8 SAMANTHA’S STRIKE is confidently spotted in a stakes first-time out. She’s very well bred and has been working well for a good debut trainer.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4,8,9

Race 9

#8 PAMPERED KING is a half to multiple G1 winner Aussie Rules, who also won his debut. #4 SILENT SHOT has been working well for a good debut trainer. #10 SIMMERING HOT has been working well for a barn that has already won two juvenile races this meet.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4,8,10

Friday July 25 picks

Race 1

#5 R.A. INDY was ultra-impressive winning at this level last time. This edition is tougher but she clearly fits and should be a square price. #7 FROST LADY closed powerfully to get second in her turf debut. The drop the $5,000 starter allowance should make her very tough today. #3 SUGAR BOOGER makes a lot of sense but did finish behind Frost Lady in their last meeting.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 3,5,7

Race 2

#5 PURE NICKEL never made an impact against much tougher in her debut but she was very wide and fits nicely here. #1 GALS NIGHT OUT made a middle move and flattened out last time. She’s drawn better today and may have more punch in the stretch. #8 MEOLDY MINE tries turf for the first time and is bred to prefer the lawn.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 1,5,8 w/ 6,9 w/ 1,3,6

Race 3

#9 COMMISSON was favored against open $16,000 foes last time. He didn’t finish very strongly that day but should find conditioned $5,000 company significantly easier. #6 CHIEF COMMANDER has run three straight very competitive races at this level. He should be right in the thick of things again today. #8 DYNASTAR should appreciate the return to turf.

Suggested bet: Trifecta key – 9 w/ 4,6,8

Race 4

There’s a surprising lack of early speed in here. #1 UPTOWN BOOTS stalked a slow pace last time but has been on the lead plenty of times in the past and looks best situated to take advantage of the pace scenario today. #1A LUV DOWN THE AISLE also fits. #6 QUEEN OF LAUGHS and #3 DOOLITTLE will both be bet hard for good reason but both may be hampered by a slow pace today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1 w/ 3,6

Race 5

#5 EASTBOUND is razor-sharp right now and has the versatility to either take them gate to wire or sit off anyone else who might want the lead today. #2 FREE DUBAI should improve considerably as he stretches back out in his second start of the season after a sprint prep. #1 MISS NAPLES is fast enough to beat the boys. #3 SURVEYOR is clearly good enough but hasn’t run as well on turf.

Suggested bet: Win - 5

Race 6

#6 CLASS TIE and #7 HOLY AKADYA caught a tough field last time. Both finished well to get 5^th and 6^th respectively and should be much closer today. #9 POMPANO BEACH ROSE was a good third the last time she tried this level. She’ll be the main beneficiary if a slow pace develops today. #2 COME HOME CATE improved dramatically last time and gets a much better post today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 6,7

Race 7

#8 TOMMIE’S STAR simply has the most early speed in a relatively paceless race. It’s an evenly matched field on talent but he’s got that one big situational advantage. #6 LYCURGUS should improve with the added furlong and a trip closer to the rail. #3 HANDS ON was very good last time and would be no surprise. #1 MISSISSIPPI STORM was less than a length behind Hands On.

Suggested bet: Win – 8

Race 8

#1 ROLLS ROSS steps up but the ultra-consistent gelding is three for three at this tricky distance. #4 INDRAN didn’t take the turf last time and should relish the return to an elongated main-track sprint. #6 GAMMY’S A WINNER isn’t particularly consistent but he’s certainly good enough on his best day. #5 LIL MOON MAN showed blistering speed last time but was tiring late at a shorter distance.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1,4,6

Race 9

#3 BUSTER’S PRIDE is the only horse with proven form going this far on dirt. #2 GET A LIL IN is clearly good enough but must stretch his speed a lot further today. #7 MR. JONES has been excellent on turf this meet but hasn’t run as well on dirt in the past.

Suggested bet: Win - 3

Tuesday July 22 pick

Race 1

#6 DOHA was awfully game to prevail on June 27 off a long layoff. She’s perfect at Colonial and would appear to have a great shot to keep that record intact today. #7 SHORE GIRL wins this easily if she’s back to her best but she’s run two straight subpar races. #1 SPREADIN JOY won very impressively at this course and distance in her last start, but that was over a year ago.

Suggested bet: Win - 6

Race 2

#4 HOME SKILLET ran huge in his debut, almost running down a loose on an easy lead pacesetter despite breaking slow and going wide. #7 RABBITOUTOFMYHAT has a good win-early turf pedigree and is in good hands with the meet’s leading trainer and rider. #1 HOLLYS SONG is another firster with a win-early pedigree.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 4 w/ 2,4,5,7 w/ 1,3,7

Race 3

#4 TROLL BRIDGE can take advantage of what should be a fast pace if he moves forward as expected in his second start of the year. #2 ON MY DIME should also move forward in his second race off a layoff after flattening out a bit last time. #5 DELTA MOON ran well against much tougher last time. #7 WILD PAL is a reasonable but likely overbet favorite in a wide-open race.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4 w/ 2,5,7

Race 4

#7 DOUBLE ENVOY is a well-bred first-time starter backed by a high-percentage trainer/jockey combination. #3 SPIRITOFSTEELE comes off two very game seconds. He’s clearly good enough but his best races were at much longer distances than today’s. #1A UNDENIABLE SIN would be no surprise after a good second behind an extremely heavy favorite at this level last time.

Suggested bet: Pick- 4 – 1,3,7 w/ 3,5 w/ 7 w/ 1,2,5

Race 5

#3 NIGHT PASSAGE gets the critical drop to maiden claiming ranks for the first time and should get a perfect setup with all the speed in this race. #5 BLINK AND DANCE has run off to take huge leads through blistering fractions before tiring in both of his Colonial races. Perhaps new rider Luis Garcia can convince him to rate today. #6 PRIMERO PERU should appreciate the return to turf.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 3,5,6

Race 6

#7 BOPOLENE is the only filly in here with proven ability to win from off the pace. Breaking from the outside, she should be able to rate off the duel and finish best of them all. #6 PICTUREMEWITHROSES showed a lot of talent in her debut. She’s been off for a while but a great work on July 12 indicates that she’s ready to fire fresh.

Suggested bet: Win – 7

Race 7
#5 FISHERMAN DUKE needs the lead and it looks like he’ll get it here. #1 BABO is a steadily improving 3yo who should get a nice ground saving trip from the rail. #2 SEAWEED JACKSON won a key race two back but couldn’t get the job done at 2-5 last time.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 1,2,5 w/ 6 w/ 1,3

Race 8

#6 GOLDEN ORB has the complete first-time starter package – solid pedigree, works, trainer and jockey. #1 SHEZA WONDER switches back the dirt in search of an elusive first win. She’s the best show bet in the race after 7 2nds and 4 3rds in 21 starts. #7 SALTWATER COWGIRL ran well in her debut. She should move up with that experience and the cutback in distance.

Suggested bet: Exacta – 6 w/ 1,7

Race 9

#1A LITHGOWCONCERNWISH couldn’t chase down a loose on the lead winner last time but should have an easier time today with the slight drop in class. #3 GRAMMATELLI didn’t show much on turf but acquitted herself well on dirt earlier this year, splitting the fields against tougher.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1,3

Sunday July 20 picks

Race 1

#6 HEZA DISCO was right on top of a debilitating pace last time. The huge class drop and significantly better pace scenario should make him very tough today. #2 SMILING CAT is always right in the mix but has given up three straight stretch leads. #4 MR. WILLIE JOE was a decent second at this level last time.

Suggested bet: Win - 6

Race 2

#6 AFTERNOON JAZZ made up some ground after a rough trip last time. He’ll be tough to deny with a clean trip in this easier spot. #2 SATIN BLUE is the always dangerous speed on the rail and she can obviously handle running against the boys after finishing third behind two next out winners the last time she tried. #7 SHARETHEHONOR can win this with his best effort.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 2,4,6,7 w/ 5,6,8 w/ 7

Race 3

#5 DANA CALIFORNIA wins easily with a repeat of her June 14 effort. She has run a clunker since then and now takes a precipitous drop in class so there are plenty of warning signs if you want take a shot at beating the favorite. #6 BEACH CITY is a logical second choice after running well against tougher this meet. #8 ASHLEY’S DREAMER was good two back and had an excuse last time.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 5,6,8

Race 4

#7 LIMEY hasn’t lost since November, 2006. There’s no reason to expect his six-race win streak to end today as he goes second off the layoff at his favorite track and distance in a condition he’s overqualified for. #5 ROI DE VIOLETTE showed a ton of determination to win his last despite a brutal trip. He should run even better today but must find a career best to handle the favorite.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 7 w/ 4,6,7 w/ 1,2,3 w/ 1,2

Race 5

#4 RUNFORRENEE has her best chance to win since her four-length maiden score last summer at Colonial. She drops substantially from starter allowance company and gets a perfect set-up stalking a fast pace. #7 MINNIE’S EXPRESS gamely held on beak her maiden in fast time. Can she rate? #6 ROMAN QUEEN MARY was cooked in a suicidal duel last time. The drop and cutback should suit.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4,6,7

Race 6

#1 VALID CITIZEN ran huge to break his maiden first off the claim last time. He will win with a repeat of that effort. He’s never sprinted on turf before but is bred to even better at that game than going two-turns. #2 MR. INVISIBLE steps back up after nice dead-heat win in a key race. #3 SEEYOUINTHECITY has every right to improve in his 3yo debut after a promising 2yo campaign.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1 w/ 2,3

Race 7

#1A OPEN ROAD looks like a new and much improved horse on turf. It’s always tough facing winners for the first time but he looks well spotted to win right back after a dominant maiden score. #2 WHITE HEART LANE lost by just a nose at this level last time. He figures to be right back in the mix today. #3 GRAND AND WARREN clearly fits after two good races at this level.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 1,2,3 w/ 6 w/ 3,6

Race 8

#6 FRISKY THUNDER has been basically unbeatable in Virginia-bred stakes this season. This is probably shorter than he’d prefer but he’ll be awfully tough to beat regardless. #1 POWER JEANS hasn’t won in awhile but it awfully consistent and he did run a couple of big races at Colonial last summer. #3 SANDY’S GOLD hasn’t been the same since winning this last summer.

Suggested bet: Trifecta – 6 w/ 1,3 w/ 1,2,3,4,5

Race 9

#6 PLEAD MY CASE made a very promising turf debut six days, closing strongly for second after a wide trip. He’s drawn better today and is obviously sharp. #3 SKATIN JAKE looked like a winner before yielding late in both starts at Colonial this season. He’ll be right in the mix yet again today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 3,6

Saturday July 19 picks

Race 1

#3 DEALER BEWARE has a substantial speed figure edge, the meet’s top jockey, top trainer and a good post position. There are no knocks on the 6-5 favorite. #2 FOREST CRUISER gets a double cure for fading late, turning back in distance and adding Lasix. #7 A CHANGE OF HEART was a beaten favorite in his off the turf debut. He’ll get grass today and has every right to improve in his second lifetime start. #5 WON AFFAIR shows some nice works and attracts one of the leading riders for his debut. #4 SONG OF LOVE was a good second at this level last time and may move forward in his second race off a six-month layoff.

Suggested bet: Daily Double – 2,3 w/ 2,4

Race 2

#4 BEACHCOMBER seems to have turned the corner with two straight dominating wins by a combined 9¼ lengths. This is a big step up but the lightly raced 3yo seems eminently capable of handling it. #2 TREASURE MAP ran well to beat starter allowance foes last time and looks awfully tough here as he dips into claiming company for the first time. #6 WE’RE SAILING should be freewheeling on the lead once again today and may just forget to stop. #5 CRYPTOGRAM got back on track with a n2L win last time. #7 PLEASANT BEAU was flying late to get third against tougher last time. He should be motoring in the stretch again today.

Suggested bet: Win - 4

Race 3

#5 YIELD TO NO ONE looks well positioned to start what could be a huge day for trainer Carlos Garcia. Yield to No One was a good second at this level two back and returns to her best distance today. #3 DDTAXWATUWANT could rebound today at a big price. She signaled improvement with a big win on dirt - not her preferred surface - two races ago. She was shuffled back early last time and understandably couldn’t close into a slow pace. She should get a much better setup today. #7 STIRRUP CUP steps back up into 1x company after a good high-priced claiming win here last time. #8 OCALA GATOR already has a good win at the meet. #6 KISSEMILIE finally gets turf again after two off-the-turf races and will be dangerous if allowed an easy lead.

Suggested Bet: Exacta box – 3 w/ 5,6,7,8

Race 4

The early pick-3 ends and the pick-4 starts with the most difficult race of the day, arguably the best baby race of the meet. #1A ROCKIN’ JOE is a very well-bred first time starter. He’s by a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner and is a half-brother to Sindy With an S, a graded stakes winner who prevailed in her debut. #1 HEART OF A KING completes a promising entry for leading owner David A. Ross. #11 SLICK TALKING is another blue-blooded firster. He’s the first foal out of a 2yo stakes winner from a good female family. #9 HALLELUJAH ran very well first time out, rushing up to duel with a very fast winner and holding on well to save second. #4 IKE set a pressured pace in his debut before succumbing to some solid horses. He could easily move forward with Lasix added and the switch to turf for his second start.

Suggested bet: Win – 1

Race 5

#7 VICAR’S TUNE overcame a long layoff to win a 1x here last month and should be even tougher today with added fitness and the stretch-out to two turns. #3 MINNAMANA just missed at his level and should be even tougher today with a more pace to set up the 10-time winner’s powerful late kick. #2 MOUNT WEATHER ran a clunker in the Van Clief but is plenty good enough off his dominant 1x win here last month. #5 MALIBU KID would be very difficult to beat if he’s as good on turf as on dirt. There are some turf influences in his pedigree but neither of his unraced dam’s two previous foals ran well on the lawn.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 2,3,7

Race 6

#4 POPLAR GROVE ran his best race at this one-mile distance. He can be forgiven for tiring a bit after wide trips going longer and projects to a great trip today from post 4. #2 COUNT TOLSTOY may have been best in his debut, finishing strongly despite a glacial pace and having to wait for room. #5 RAJASTHAN should also appreciate the cutback after tiring in deep stretch last time. #6 BLENDED WHISKEY moved way up on turf to get second in a high price maiden claimer last time. He steps up to straight maidens but has plenty of upside in his 3^rd lifetime start. #3 BALTIMORE CLASSIC is good enough if he can transfer his dirt form to the turf.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4 w/ 2,5,6

Race 7

#7 BALLAST deserves to be the heavy favorite here. He’s a legitimate graded stakes horse with dominant speed figures. The long layoff shouldn’t be much of a problem since he’s been working strongly for trainer Graham Motion, who is hitting with 28% of his returnees. #1 MIDWATCH proved he’s still going strong at age 9 with a dominant win the Old Nelson. He loves this track and ought to get a beautiful trip from the rail under Edgar Prado today, whether he gets the lead again or stalks in second. #2 MINT SLEWLEP proved he could handle turf with a gritty win in the Da Hoss two weeks ago. He’ll have to step up to beat the favorite but that long, sustained run he made in the Da Hoss should put him right back in the mix today.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 7 w/ 2,7,9,10 w/ 7,8

Race 8

#10 I LOST MY CHOO has won more races, earned more money, and earned better speed figures than her rivals. It all adds up to a legitimate 9-5 favorite even if she always makes it close, having never won by more than three-quarters of a length. #7 NAMASTE’S WISH hasn’t quite lived up to the promise she showed as a 2yo but she should be closing late today and would be no surprise. #2 JULIA TUTTLE looked fantastic in both of her wins here. The speed figures are weak compared to the favorites today but it’s worth noting that she beat Holy Grace by 4¼ lengths while I Lost My Choo only beat her by three-quarters of a length. #9 CHEROKEE QUEEN could be any kind. She’s done nothing wrong in her three starts to date so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if she passes her class test today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 10 w/ 2,7,9

Race 9

#8 SAILOR’S CAP was astonishingly good in the Colonial Turf Cup. He went from 9½ lengths behind to 3½ in front in less than a quarter of mile to score to a truly convincing victory. It’s somewhat tempting to label him a soft turf specialist but he did win impressively on firm turf as a 2yo. He’s probably a star on any footing. #7 GIO PONTI is an extremely talented horse with seemingly unlimited upside. He’s stretching out a whole quarter-mile today but is a half to Fisher Pond, who was a stakes winner at 1½ miles. #2 OLD MAN BUCK was a very good 2yo. He flattened out a bit after making a menacing move in his 3yo debut but should finish stronger today with a race under his belt. #1 YOUR ROUND outran his odds to get third with an impressive finish in the Colonial Turf Cup. He was never going to catch Sailor’s Cap but there’s little doubt he’ll handle the Derby distance. Another late close for a piece at inflated odds is well within his reach.

Suggested bet: Trifecta – 7,8 w/ 1,2,7,8 w/ 1,2,7,8

Race 10

#6 TATJANA’S SALUTE was a good second to Elchase, who came back to win a 1x Tuesday at Colonial. She should get plenty of pace to set up her potent late kick. #9 ACT LIKE A QUEEN ran huge to get third after some early trouble last time. She’ll also be flying late and certainly has the pedigree to keep improving. #11 PING BAY stretches out for the first time after two good sprint efforts. #3 RECTOR’S LADY is yet another closer with upside. She was bet heavily in her debut and certainly has every right to improve second time out.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 6,9

Friday July 18 picks

Race 1

#7 SHE LOVES ME NOW is a remarkably consistent closer who gets a great setup today with a lot of speed horses signed on. #8 SAFELY’S ENVOY should also benefit from the expected fast pace after rallying for third behind an average pace last time. #3 GOLD MARIE dominated on dirt last time but tries turf for the first time today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 7 w/ 3,8

Race 2

This race has all the makings of a blowup with the two best horses marooned on the far outside. #2 DJ’S TOP TEN finds an infinitely easier spot after chasing in three live MSW races. #1 TU BAKU should be closing late for a piece. #13 MORNIN’ EDDIE and #12 BLONDESHAVEMORERUN have the best form but awful posts. #7 TUTTY’S JET has been working well for his debut.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 2 w/ 1,7,12,13

Race 3

#6 YANKEESSWEPTINFOUR dueled inside through fast fractions before succumbing late last time to finish second. Today’ middle post position offers more options and the class drop makes life even easier for the favorite. #1 EIGHT IN A ROW is an improving 3yo coming off a confidence building maiden score. #3 OZZIE’S BOYS was only two lengths behind the favorite last time.

Suggested bet: Trifecta 1,6 w/ 1,3,6 w/ 1,3,6,7

Race 4

#10 FUNNY BEACH attracts a top rider for his debut, has been working steadily and has a good turf pedigree. #9 GEAUX BAYOU just missed last in a sharp effort. #4 LIGHTNIGHT HOOVES earned a big figure against tougher. #3 JEFFERSONTON could break through after three straight seconds. #11 SUNDAY PROSPECTOR looked like a promising 2yo but has been away a long time.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 3,4,9,10,11 w/ 5 w/ 5,8 w/ 6,8

Race 5

#5 HEAVENLY MOON has been running well enough against tough competition to be a deserving 9-5 favorite here. #4 SKI SKY scored a big maiden win last time and may move forward in her second start off a four-month break. #7 CRAWFORD COUNTY ran huge on the 4^th of July but failed in both of her turf tries.

Suggested bet: Win – 5

Race 6

#5 HOOH WHY is a full sister to a stakes winner. She’s been training very well for a good first-out trainer. #8 DELECTABLE CAT ran very well in her debut. She won’t be a maiden for long.#4 MISS COSMOPOLITAN has an exquisite pedigree and has been working well for her debut. #2 PROSECCA is another blueblood - her dam won her debut on turf and a G3 as a 2yo.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 5 w/ 2,4,8

Race 7

#8 IRISH CHESTNUT broke her maiden impressively last time and looks well-spotted to win right back in her first race against winners. #6 ROSELAND couldn’t close into a slow pace last time but has run well enough to win this in the past and gets an appropriate drop in class. #10 HARD ROCKIN closed nicely going 5f last time and may improve on the stretchout today.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 6,8 w/ 1,2,4 w/ 1,4

Race 8

#2 TUCKLINO should sit a perfect trip stalking the speed and may appreciate stretching back out to his best distance. #4 COME TO TERMS was a good second on turf last time and is probably better on dirt. #1 FAMED AFFAIR should be on the lead. He’s good enough to win but his chances probably hinge on whether any of the stretching out sprinters push him early.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 2 w/ 1,4

Race 9

# 4 DANCIN BUDDHA should love the cutback to 6½ today after a failed route race against tough 1x foes. He’s probably the most talented horse and projects to an excellent trip. #1 MONTFORT is rather inconsistent on dirt but is certainly good enough to win if he shows up today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 1,4

Tuesday July 15 picks

Race 1

#2 WHO’S FIRST gets a bigger than it looks drop. He won by 3¾ lengths the last time he raced at this level and gets the leading trainer and jockey. #1 DYNASTAR has been running reasonably well on dirt this year but should really move up with the return to turf today. #5 NOTABLE TIGER looked incredible making up 10 lengths in the stretch last time.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1,2,5

Race 2

#5 GOLDVILLE appears to be at least five lengths the best on paper. She should break through today after two very narrow losses for twice this claiming price. #2 GOLDEN DOVE finally gets a good position after breaking from the outside in both her turf tries. #6 SHE’S SPONTANEOUS was a close second at this level last time and figures to be in the mix again today.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 5 w/ 2,5,7 w/ 4,7,8

Race 3

#2 NONCHALANT ran into on of the tougher editions of this race last time. Today’s task is easier, especially with a relative lack of speed signed on. #5 ROUGH DAY had no chance trying to close into a slow pace last time. It was a good comeback race for a horse who finally gets to run two straight without a break. #7 RUDIRUDY must always be respected.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 2 w/ 3,5,7

Race 4

#4 FLASHY JAZZY tired after setting the pace against more expensive n3L foes. The drop in price and back to n2L company should make him much tougher today. #7 Right On Go looked good breaking her maiden last time. #8 DAY FOR DAY is inconsistent but good enough on her best day.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 4,7 w/ 1,2,4 w/ 8 w/ 1,2,9

Race 5

#1 TUX N’ TALES exits a starter allowance that was a lot tougher than the speed figure would indicate. #1A SIDE BUSTER also drops significantly from stakes competition, either would be tough here. #2 DIAMOND WILDCAT will win if he can return to last year’s form in his second start of the year. #4 MR. CLARK drops precipitously off a nine-month layoff. He’s scary.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 1 w/ 2,4

Race 6

#8 JIGALONG freaked in his turf debut, winning by nine over two next-out winners. He looks like a deserving short-price favorite. #4 HIGHCREST looks to have significant upside after leading every step but the last in his first start against winners.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 4,8

Race 7

#9 WYE looks like the only confirmed frontrunner here and is certainly classy enough to hold off any late charges. #2 KIM’S DIXIE TUNE finished almost the exact same distance behind Treasure Map as Wye did in separate races. #1 LUCKMAN finished very well to get second against similar last time and should be right back in the mix today.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 1,2,9 w/ 1,4,5 w/ 7

Race 8

#1 FINAL SCRIPT has excuses for his last two, losing all chance at the start last time and running for a different barn two back. #4 IT’S A GIVEN has the best recent dirt form and has never been off the board at this somewhat unusual distance. #5 MY HUSBAND switches back the main track after two straight seconds on turf. He’s run well on dirt before and certainly fits.

Suggested bet: Trifecta box 1,4,5

Race 9

#7 SHARMA’s last race makes him a very deserving odds-on choice today. #1 CANNON STATION may have need his last race off a long layoff. He’ll get a better trip from the rail today. #6 MAKIN A SUIT didn’t do much in his debut but may wake up the surface switch and Lasix.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 7 w/ 1,6

Monday July 14 picks

Race 1

#3 SPEAK LOW has all the attributes you look for in a first-time starter - a solid win-early pedigree, regular works and a good debut trainer. #2 LEROY’S SPIRIT looks like the best of the experienced runners off a good second at this level last time. #1 SALDANHA is another firster with an excellent turf pedigree.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 3 w/ 1,2

Race 2

#7 KEY UNION made a nice middle move before getting bumped and subsequently flattening out last time. He still got third behind an odds-on favorite and a next-out winner. #5 THE BOY FROM BRAY is a legitimate favorite off a good second at this level. #1A BREAKER BREAKER should improve off a promising debut with Lasix added today.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 1,5,7 w/ 2,5,6 w/ 9

Race 3

#2 RUNNING GEAR looked good winning here on July 1. She should be tough yet again on the slight cutback in distance. #6 REMEMBERTHECOWGIRL looked washed up over the last year but the 8yo found the fountain of youth with an excellent third against tougher last time. #5 WHEREDIDEVERYONEGO could prove tough with the big class drop.

Suggested bet: Win - 2

Race 4

#9 DON’TQUESTION IT couldn’t hold on against $15,000 foes but should prove much tougher to catch at this level. #3 SENSATIONAL IMAGE ran a real clunker last time but would be awfully tough to beat on his previous form. #1 HIDE AND SNEEK is tough at this course and distance.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 9 w/ 1,2 w/ 1,4,11,13 w/ 3,4,8

Race 5

#1 HALLUCINOJENIC found a new lease on life this year with a string of super turf sprint races. He failed as the favorite against tougher last time but looks well positioned for a rebound today. #2 STEPPEDOUTOFPLACE is justifiably jumped up in class after a freakish win in his turf debut.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 1,2

Race 6

#4 BELIEVEINYESTERDAY couldn’t handle Steppedoutofplace but should find the going a little easier here. #11 NEON LIGHTS cuts back the distance of his lone win after tiring late in several two-turn races. #1 JEALOUSLY is always somewhere in the mix. #13 PLEAD MY CASE is an interesting longshot despite the post since he is bred top and bottom for turf.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4 w/ 1,11,13

Race 7

#3 UNADULTERATED deserves another chance on turf since he stumbled at the start in his lone previous grass race. Even with the trouble, that turf race was better than his dirt races at the time and he’s bred to prefer the green. #4 AMERICANISM should run much better today than he did going farther against tougher last time. #8 BRED TO WIN has every right to break through today after two straight solid runner-up finishes. #10 BIG JIM M is good enough but is stuck in post 10.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 3,4,8 w/ 5,8 w/ 6,7

Race 8

#5 AFFIRMATION switches back to the main track and cuts back in distance after flattening out on turf last time. She’s run significantly faster on dirt than any of today’s rivals. #8 EASY MOVER takes the key drop to maiden claiming company today. The lightly raced 3yo has the most upside potential here. #3 SEEKING ALLIE should get an easier lead today and may stick around for a slice.

Suggested bet: Exacta 5,8 w/ 3,5,8

Race 9

#4 LITTLE TIP TOP should return to her best form with the return to a dirt sprint today. #6 MELOLINK should sit the garden trip behind a potential duel. #7 MOON STEPPER will likely hold on a little better today in her second start of the season.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4,6,7

Sunday July 13 picks

Race 1

#5 BEE CHARMER was a graded stakes caliber runner on the flat. He lost his rider early in his hurdle debut but is certainly talented enough to make an impact. #2 ZOZIMUS threw in a rare clunker last time but ran well here at Strawberry Hill so it’s probably not the course. #8 TWO TERMS deserves another chance after losing his jockey in his lone hurdle race.

Suggested bet: Win - 5

Race 2

#7 TIMELY TRADITION lost by less than two lengths against tougher after a long break. He should be doubly tough on the drop today. #6 CLASS REAL ROCK looked like a new horse with a flying finish to just miss last time, an impressive feat going 1 3/16 off a eight-month layoff. #3 GAME FACE ON will be also be closing late.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 3,6,7 w/ 3,8,9 w/ 5

Race 3

#3 DR. BLOOMER looks primed for his second straight Grade III win today as he returns to the scene of his first hurdle victory. #8 DUKE OF EARL couldn’t quite catch a loose on the lead winner who nearly set a course record last time but the 7-time winner gets a better setup today. #9 FREE ADMISSION got back on track with a good second here opening weekend.

Suggested bet: Win - 3

Race 4

#5 GRANT ME SUNSHINE nearly wired tougher despite setting a fast pace. He should more options today with a better post and will be very tough to beat at this level. #10 MEAN SALLY also drops off two good performances but is marooned in post 10. #7 THE MANNER BORN should improve in her second lifetime start.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 5,10 w/ 5 w/ 1,4,5,11 w/ 2,5,7

Race 5

#5 ROBIN DES TUNE is a freakishly fast turf sprinter in career best form. She’s exactly the type of horse that dominates these starter allowances. Trying to run with her early looks like a suicide mission, so ratable types like #2 MYSTIC BAY and #3 TRUCKEE FAD figure to pick up the pieces.

Suggested bet: Trifecta key – 5 w/ 2,37

Race 6

#4 BRAESIDE closed well into a slow pace to just miss in her turf debut. This is a slight step up but she’s obviously on the improve and is lightly raced enough to have some upside. #5 BRIGANTINE QUEEN would be ultra-tough with a return to her 2007 form but she hasn’t shown as much this year. #1 LIGHT EVENT acquitted herself well against MSW company and should appreciate the drop today. #11 TRUE HYPE is clearly good enough to win but is likely facing a wide trip from post 11.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4 w/ 1,5,11

Race 7

#5 POR SUPUESTO couldn’t handle $16,000 foes but looks very live here. #2 MELMONT gamely won in the final stride last time over horses that came back to run well. He switches to turf, a surface he ran well on last year, and should be closing late once again. #7 HITTHESNOOZE understandably tired late after dueling last time. He doesn’t necessarily need the lead and should love the cutback.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 2,5,7 w/ 1,5,6 w/ 6

Race 8

#5 LIBOR LADY was uncharacteristically far back last time and had to steady on the turn but still managed a good second and should return to her winning ways today. #1 ANGEL I B nearly won at this level last time despite a torrid duel. #6 READ THE LABEL is always in the mix.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1,5,6

Race 9

#6 NIGHT PASSAGE ran well enough to win this as a 2yo and should prove even tougher in his 3yo debut. #4 ROYAL BAYOU has an excellent turf pedigree and finally gets the green after two off the turf races. #9 FORMAL NOTICE shows some nice works for his career debut.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 6 w/ 4,9

Saturday July 12 picks

Race 1

#2 S’NO SURRENDER makes his debut in an relatively easy spot for a good first-out trainer. He has a solid turf pedigree and reasonable enough works to support any optimism today. #7 ONE SUNDAY should flash speed and be awfully close at the wire for third straight time. #6 GATOR AT THE GATE ran well on turf against MSW foes in his career debut and finally gets back to the lawn today. #4 ROSEY’S MO made a promising debut last fall, overcoming a bad break to finish fourth behind two next-out winners. Career start #2 has been a long time coming but he’s bred to move up on turf and has been working steadily for her belated return.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 2 w/ 4,6,7

Race 2

#3 OH MY ME MY loves this course and distance and is obviously sharp after a dominating win against similar last time. #1 THE BOHEMIAN suffered from less than ideal trips in both his last two races. He should show real improvement with an inside draw and a fairly significant class drop today. #4 CHIEF COMMANDER has lost two straight in agonizing fashion, looking like a winner before losing by a neck both times. He should be right in the thick of it again as the favorite today. #7 INSTICTIVELY almost stole a win against similar last time, running free on a slow pace, and there’s not much speed in here either. #8 WE HOPE fits but lost to the top choice two back and loses Karamanos.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 1,3,4 w/ 1 w/ 1,2,4,6,7

Race 3

#1 FESTIVE MOMENT drops down from a particularly salty n3L race last time that produced a couple of horses that came back to win against tougher. An advantageous inside post position and stretch-out today only add to the appeal. #6 BRADYS GRIN also drops from n3L company, where she was a good third last time. #7 SADU has five exacta finishes in nine starts but must improve in her turf debut to handle the top two.

Suggested Bet: Exacta box – 1,6

Race 4

A reasonable case can be made for all nine entrants in this wide-open affair, but with a number of speed horses battling for position through a short run into the first turn it may pay to favor the closers. #7 RESCIGNO was closer than usual to a slow pace while racing wide last time. He still finished fast to get third behind some tough customers and should be even better today with added fitness and a better pace scenario. #1A GOLD HOUSE is four for five at Colonial, including two straight wins this season against some of today’s rivals. #1 BRICKELL has been second to two tough rivals this season and has the perfect style for today’s race. #2B SPRING HONOR got a weak figure last time but the slow pace that day certainly affected the time and he’s run fast enough to win this on several occasions. #2 BRESCELLO had a couple of legitimate excuses last time and figures to be tougher on the drop. #6 HEZA DISCO freaked at Colonial last year but the need-the-lead type figures to be hampered today. #4 SUSSEX COUNTY ran well in two flat races here last summer and you have to figure the steeplechaser should be finishing strongly.

Suggested bet: 10 cent super – 1,2,7 w/ 1,27 w/ 1,2,4,6,7 w/ 1,2,4,6,7

Race 5

#3 NIGERA could not have looked better winning his last by four lengths over two impressive next-out winners. This looks like a perfect spot for a repeat victory. #4 SOOOZ would be almost impossible to beat at her best. The 7yo drops all the way from 1x allowance company to $5,000 today after an unimpressive return to the races on opening day. She was caught wide from post 11 that day and certainly must be respected. #1 NUN TOO NICE jumped up to win at 70-1 last time but that was going two-turns on the Pimlico main track. Hard to take her over the top two but she has run well in turf sprints before and will be double-digit odds again today.

Suggested bet: Win - 3

Race 6

#4 WHAT SHE SAID was a good 2yo on the grass. Any of her three turf tries would be good enough and it’s perfectly logical to expect her to be even better now as a 3yo. #1 MISS MORGANA looked like a winner after 5 furlongs last time. She should be awfully tough with the cutback in distance and added fitness gleaned from that first race in nine months. #2 RUNFORRENEE won by four the last time she was entered for a tag. She obviously likes the course and distance and should get plenty of speed to run at today. #3 ROBIN DES VAULT ran well in both turf races despite outside posts. She should get a perfect stalking trip today from a nice middle draw.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4 w/ 1,2,3

Race 7

#4 BOPOLENE survived a pace duel to finish a surprise second in a stakes four weeks ago. She’s obviously quite good right now and finds a good spot to get a win today. #2 LADY IN ERMINE dominated maidens last time but was DQed. She certainly ran well enough to win this tougher race and her connections are confidently skipping another presumably easier race against maidens for this spot. #3 HORTICULTURE gives turf another try after encountering trouble going two turns on the lawn last time. She should appreciate the cutback today and finish much stronger at a big price. #7 JE SUIS PREST has been knocking at the door for a while at this level. She’ll get plenty of pace to flatter her late kick today. #1 ENJOYABLE will also be closing late.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 2,3,4 w/ 4,11 w/ 1,5

Race 8

#11 PERFECT FOREST seems like the most talented horse here if she can handle turf. The Forestry filly is half sister to a turf graded stakes winner so the surface switch should pose no problem. #4 DEBBIE SUE is formidable on her best day, like her stakes record win in this race two years ago despite clipping heels on the turn. She appears to be primed for best after a good allowance win 13 days ago. #10 MOLLY MOON should move forward today after a dirt sprint prep.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 4,10,11

Race 9

#1 BRAHMS MELODY ran into a freak last time but acquitted himself well with a closing second to Whata Monster. He won for $10,000 before that and looks extremely tough on the drop to $5,000 today, where he’ll get a perfect setup closing into a fast pace. #5 SET CAMP has been ultra-tough on dirt at Charles Town but has been off for three months and has never tried turf before. He’ll be on lead and could prove tough to catch if he does take to the lawn. #6 FREE CLASS has been competitive against tougher than it appears competition in both starts this season.

Suggested bet: Trifecta – 1,5 w/ 1,5,6 w 1,2,5,6

Friday July 11 picks

Race 1

#2 DOODLES gets a much better post position after showing some late life against tougher last week. #1 MS LORA is the latest in a long, generally successful, line of horses dropping in class first off the claim for these connections. #8 REMY CHRISTINE got stuck behind a glacial pace last time and takes a big class drop. #7 LIPSTICK WARRIOR could improve substantially with a better start.

Suggested bet: Trifecta – 1,2 w/ 1,2,8 w/ 1,2,7,8

Race 2

#5 SIR CLASSIC CHRIS should get another dream trip stalking a slow early pace. #6 SMILING CAT has been remarkably consistent over the past year. He’ll be in the mix but has a troubling propensity giving away stretch leads. #7 CHOCOLATE KNIGHT ran well enough to win this last year and should move forward in his second race of a long layoff.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 5,6,7 w/ 3 w/ 3,6,8

Race 3

#3 LADY STRIKER will be freewheeling on the lead once again. The droop back $7,500 should insure something closer the 8-length victory two back than the 6^th place finish last time. #4 LADY AT THE HELM will be closing late for a piece. #2 SCAT CAT SCAT hasn’t done much lately but has the back class to win. #6 SHANNON H couldn’t finish with $16,000 foes, class drop helps.

Suggested bet: Win - 3

Race 4

#8 GUERILLA TACTICS ran well on turf as a 2yo. Today’s surface switch and class drop may be all he needs. #3 ROSEVILLE RUN ran very well opening week but disappointed most recently in his first try against winners. #6 SEVEN TWO OFFSUIT should be prominent throughout

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 3,6,8 w/ 6 w/ 2,7 w/ 2,6

Race 5

#6 INISH SHANK had an excellent seasonal debut two weeks ago, a closing third going shorter that sets him up perfectly for today’s return to his best distance. #5 WILD PAL should be very tough on the class drop. #7 ON MY DIME probably needed his last and should improve today.

Suggested bet: Win - 6

Race 6

#7 WHITE HART LANE finally got his first victory in his first start for a red-hot barn. Today is first two-turn turf try, which the pedigree suggests should be his best trip. #2 PAINTED FACE won the pace duel but lost the war in his first start off a long layoff. He should finish stronger today. #6 IRISH GUY could take the needed step forward with more ground and Lasix added today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 7 w/ 2,5,6

Race 7

#6 FAST DEVON was a good 2yo and gets the turf sprint his pedigree screams for today in his 3yo debut. #2 SPORTING PRINT failed as the favorite against tougher but a then-cold barn has heated up lately. #3 HE’S TUNED ran reasonably well in a stake last time so he obviously fits very well here. #7 RIDDLES AND RHYMES closed furiously after a bad start last time. He’ll be tough today with a clean break.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 2,6 w/ 2,5 w/ 1,2,6

Race 8

#2 ONLY BY INVITATION couldn’t catch a heavy favorite last time but was finishing well and should relish the added furlong today. #5 HARD LEMON has been steadily improving in all three of his races. Further improvement plus further class drop would be a winning formula. #6 READY SMILE has run well enough to win this on turf but is an unknown quantity on the main track.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 2 w/ 5,6

Race 9

#2 FINISHLION should improve with Lasix added for his second start and may well prefer dirt. #6 DUE TIME has run well enough to handle this field several times in the past so he may be due for a breakthrough today. #1 SIR STRETCHALOT didn’t take to the turf but can win on his dirt form.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1,2,6

Tuesday July 8 picks

Race 1

#2 HOME SKILLET makes his debut for trainer Hamilton Smith, who wins with 28% of his firsters in maiden claiming races. Home Skillet is bred by a turf-leaning sire and out of mare who has already produced two winners from her first two foals. #1A EXTRABAND makes his debut for another top 2yo trainer. #6 FENCE BUSTER has a long string of works and a solid turf pedigree.

Suggested bet: Daily Double 2 w/ 1,2,5

Race 2

#2 GEAX BAYOU overcame a poor start to get fourth in his turf debut. He showed a new dimension pressing the pace last time that would serve him well in today’s shorter race. #1 FLYBYBOY almost pulled off the upset last time with a furious late rally off a slow pace. He’ll get more pace to run at today. #5 GLORIOUS SUNRISE is a logical favorite.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 1,2,5 w/ 2,3 w/ 2,3,7

Race 3

#3 FATHERLESS LASS didn’t fire her best shot off a long layoff but should move up today with a little added distance and fitness. This race sets up nicely for a horse that can close like her. #2 WILD JETTA is a fairly consistent closer who should get a nice setup as well.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 2,3

Race 4

#3 ONTEHDOTTEDLINE is another solid looking firster for Smith with a great turf pedigree. #7 IRON LEGACY ran well to get fourth at Churchill. He could easily improve today as he adds blinkers and tries turf for his first start off the claim. #2 KENTUCKY STORMIN may improve a ton today with Lasix, turf and blinkers off and a sharp recent work.

Suggested bet: Pick 4 – 2,3,7 w/ 1 w/ 1,2,5,6 w/ 7

Race 5

#1 PEACE ROCK ran third in a true key race and should be even better today in his second start off the bench. #7 SAMI’S DANCER ran well in his lone turf try. He should be gunning early today.

Suggested bet: Win – 7

Race 6

#6 TRIPPEDOUTOFADREAM showed a lot in his debut, running fourth despite some trouble in a key race. #2 DISTINCTIVE RIDGE has a sizable speed figure edge that should make him very tough as he drops in class and picks up the leading rider. #1 BODY ROCKET shot out to a big lead in his debut and may get an easy lead today. #5 EIGHT IN A ROW nearly won his lone turf sprint and may move forward as he cuts back off two straight 1 1/8-mile races.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 6 w/ 1,2,5

Race 7

#7 ROYAL CORREDOR ran a monster race get second by a nose in her lone start, beating future graded stakes winner Sealy Hill by four lengths. She’s been off since that September 2006 race but has been working well for a terrific layoff trainer. #10 BALLET D’AMOUR has been on dirt and is bred to move way up on turf.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 7 w/ 2,5,8 w/ 3,6

Race 8

#5 NATURES EXPRESS didn’t handle turf last time but is very tough on dirt and projects to a nice stalking trip today. #2 LILY’S JOY impressed at 3-5 in her maiden breaker last time and looks primed for at least her eighth in the money finish in her 10^th start. #8 FREE TO SAY didn’t handle turf last time and should be much better returning to the main track today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 2,5,8

Race 9

#3 LIL MOON MAN gets a huge trainer switch to the preposterously hot Earl Begley, who adds blinkers today. #6 SIR REDFORD was forced four-wide on the first turn, a near death sentence going a mile on turf. A better post position and the return to dirt sprints should help him a ton today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 3,6