Tuesday June 24 picks

Race 1

Many of the principals here come out of a shared race under the exact same conditions on June 10. #7 CAROLINA WOLF couldn’t run down the pacesetter that day but she kept trying hard despite getting caught behind a slow pace to finish a good second. A performance as good should be good enough to get her picture taken today. #5 P J STAR was well beaten in the same race but that was her debut. She’s fired a bullet work since which may be indication that the light has gone on for her since she worked slowly in preparation for her first start. #4 FINAL REPORT finished four lengths behind Carolina Wolf without any apparent excuse but the lightly-raced filly may still have some upside.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 7 w/ 2,4,5

Race 2

#4 SEA THIS is an intriguing longshot in this wide-open affair. His turf speed figures are significantly below the favorites here but his two turf tries came against tougher competition when he was 2. He ran a good second at this course and distance last summer behind a stakes-placed winner and tired against allowance foes while going longer than he prefers. #3 CREW CAT ran well to get second behind an odds-on favorite on dirt last out and is bred to really appreciate the switch to turf. #9 MI ROLLS likes this distance and likes turf. Today is the first time he’s gotten both at the same time, which could be a potent combination. #8 IRISH GUY looked good breaking his maiden last out.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 3,4,8,9 w/ 3,11 w/ 11

Race 3

#11 LONESOME POLECAT closed belatedly in each of his starts, both of which came in New York against much tougher competition. He goes in this 1 3/16 mile race instead of facing a weaker field going a flat mile yesterday, hopefully a sign of confidence from top connections. #3 MR. AWAD has been the definition of consistency with all four of his starts earning Beyer speed figures ranging from 54 to 57. He been earning minor shares at a higher level and appears to fit this spot beautifully. #10 POLITE SPEED ran well enough to win this last summer but hasn’t yet reached that level this season. #8 MASTER GLIDE fits, but couldn’t take advantage of a blistering pace last time.

Suggested Bet: Trifecta – 3,11 w/ 3,10,11 w/ 3,8,10,11

Race 4

Here’s a classic case of trainers playing poker in a claiming race. #11 R. A. INDY ran very well against allowance foes on May 4 and was understandably claimed for $10,000 on May 23 but she ran terribly on dirt that day. Now she drops all the way to $5,000 and returns to her preferred surface for what looks like an easy spot. #4 NIGERIA was running well for 4 to 5 times this claiming price in Florida over the winter but has been dismal in her last two. The switch to a hot trainer and the return to turf might be the tonic she needs. #2 EASY WINNER has never approached the best races of the top but this is first race on the grass her pedigree is tilted towards.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 11 w/ 9 w/ 1,4,7 w/ 5,6,9,10

Race 5

#9 PLYMOUTH ROCK has run about eight lengths faster than any of today’s rivals. He must overcome an 11-moth layoff but trainer Sanna Hendriks is clicking at 34% when she brings horses back off such a long break. #4 SPIRITOFSTEELE was the 6-5 favorite in a VA-bred MSW two weeks ago. That race didn’t go well but a good interim work indicates that nothing’s physically amiss so why not forgive one bad start when the price will be much better today? #5 DIXIE THIEF improved dramatically in his last two with a trainer switch and move to turf. He’s a cut below the favorite but a near cinch to hit the board. #7 ROYAL BLACK TIE was a distant third in his debut after steadying at the start. He showed some late interest in that sprint and should improve with experience, a cleaner break and the stretch-out today. #2 CLASS BOP has been working well for his debut.

Suggested bet: Superfecta key – 9 w/ 2,4,5,7

Race 6

#7 DECENT EXPOSURE put up several efforts on turf that would win this back in 2006. He hasn’t been back on the lawn since 2006 and may not be as good now as he was then but he did run his arguably his best dirt race just two starts back. At 10-1 you can afford forgive a bad race in his most recent effort. #1 HALF MASK clearly has the back class to win this but he’s been off 11 months and was a beaten favorite in his last starts. He’s been working well and it is encouraging that he comes back at the same level but it’s hard to take a short price on a horse with so many questions. #4 CRANBERRY COVET has already run a good race at this course and distance. He jumped up with a big effort to be third behind an extremely heavy favorite last time. He’ll be tough if he can string two top performances together.

Suggested bet: Win - 7

Race 7

#5 LIBOR LADY has been devastating on turf with two straight blowout wins and the 3yo has every right to improve even more today. Best of all, she showed she can stalk and win in her most recent race, which may be key today with all the speed signed on. #9 EGYPT LANE gets an incredible setup today as the best closer in a race that is overflowing with speed. She was beaten by a couple of today’s rivals last time but has the back class to win this and gets both an additional sixteenth and a more closer friendly track to work with today. #10 KOSMO’S BUDDY drops from G3 competition and may be able to work out a nice stalking trip today. #6 BIG PATTI ran into a buzzsaw last time in the Oakley but acquitted herself well with a third-place finish and returns to a level that she only missed by a neck at two races back.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 5,6,9,10 w/ 2,3,5

Race 8

#3 LOOK ALIKE MIKE raced close up to a fast pace against much tougher last time before understandably tiring. He ought to improve significantly today. #2 CATS PURRFECTION gets back to his best game, dirt sprints, today after failing again on the turf last time. His only bad dirt outing came from post 10 at Charles Town. He’ll get a good setup with a couple of horses that should challenge the favorite the early lead. #5 GET A LIL IN steps up off a dominating maiden here opening night. A repeat of that performance would likely result in another trip to the winner’s circle but this is a tougher field and there are other speed horses to contend with here.

Suggested bet: Daily Double – 2,3,5 w/ 1,2

#1 FINAL SCRIPT features a couple of positive angles. Trainer Kenneth Cox immediately claimed him back after losing him two races ago and he stretches back out to a distance he has excelled at in the past. #2 EZ MAC is another re-claim and his last race under the care of Karen Dennehy was the best of his career. He’s been off since getting claimed in January but has worked well recently as shows some good previous comeback efforts. #7 SAFELY RUN fits well at this level and projects to a good stalking trip today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box 1 w/ 2,7