Race1
The very first race of fresh season always seems extra shiny and new but this race comes down to an age-old handicapping dilemma – can the fastest horse successfully stretch out to a new distance? #6 Little Tip Top has a clear speed figure edge and should have the lead all to herself, normally an unbeatable combination. However, today’s race is 3/16 of a mile further than she’s ever tried and Colonial’s 1300-foot stretch can seem like 1300 miles to a tired frontrunner. #2 Trip to the Moon improved a ton last out in just her third career race and could easily find the winner’s circle today with another step forward. #1
Race 2
#4 Whata Monster destroys this field on his best day but comes into the race off two subpar efforts and takes a precipitous drop in class. Can’t argue with either singling him to start the pick-3 or completely tossing him in hopes of a boxcar superfecta. #1a Tux n’ Tales ran huge in his lone race at this distance and goes first off the claim for a potent trainer. Ignore the layoff and class drop – he was probably claimed by
#4 Agress started her career last year with three straight races that would comfortably win this but has thrown in two dismal performances since then and hasn’t been seen since December. Both bad races had the built in excuse of a wide post position and she did fire a bullet work for this so a return to form would be no surprise. #1 Ala Moana will be tough to deny if she can get an easy lead like she did in her maiden breaker. She failed to carry her speed around two-turns last time but should appreciate the turn-back in distance today. #2 One in the Chamber could win with a return to the form she showed last summer but was dismal in her only 2008 start and may prefer turf. #3 Louzeeanna Swing has never run well in a sprint but the trainer switch may wake her up today.
Race 4The pick-4 starts with a true skullbuster - a wide-open field trying an unusual distance. #2 Second Approval leads a strong steeplechase contingent that may have an advantage at this 1¼-mile race. Second Approval has strong flat form, a win here last summer over fences, a very high percentage trainer and a top jockey. The 11-month layoff is a concern but he’s run well off long layoffs before. #9 Elchase has run well in all three turf tries. He won’t be a maiden long but his pedigree and running style may work against him and he’ll be a short price today. #5 Strathspey Kino was well beaten in his first two races but has blossomed this spring over fences, including a nice a second here during Strawberry Hill. #7 Poplar Grove drastically improved last time out in his seasonal debut. The Albert the Great gelding has the pedigree to get the distance and may benefit from what should be a strong pace.
Race 5#1 Hurricane Carousel appears to be the most versatile of the main contenders here and should benefit from some class relief today. #5 Dizzy Turpentine is a legitimate favorite off a solid 3-year-old campaign but she must overcome a 10-month layoff and what should be some legitimate pace pressure from her outside. #6 One Dimension returns to the scene of her best race by far, a dominant frontrunning score at this track and distance. However, she must overcome a long layoff and will have to either survive a duel a Dizzy Turpentine or show a new dimension by passing horses in the stretch for the first time. #2 Chautaqua Gal is 1-35 and hasn’t run well enough to win this kind of race since 2006 but she will get a nice pace setup to rally into for a piece at a big price.
Race 6#2 Class Care hasn’t shown much in four starts to date but drew into the weaker division of this race and has the pedigree to relish this 1¼-mile event – his mother was a multiple stakes winner on the flat and a two-time winner over fences. #7
This is the key race of the day – it’s the last race of the pick-4 and the kicks off the late pick-3. Fittingly, it’s incredibly wide-open. #4 RIVANNA showed plenty of talent last fall winning her debut at his 5½ furlong distance on turf. She had a rough trip in her second start and didn’t handle dirt last time but drops back to her ideal circumstances today and should have improved significantly from 2 to 3. #1 SOOZ makes her seasonal debut after a terrific 2007 campaign. She has the most wins in the field, loves this track and distance and fits perfectly at this level. #10 JIB is another lightly raced filly who broke her maiden first out at this distance. Like Rivanna, she finally gets back to her ideal conditions and may be much improved as a 3-year-old.
Race 8#7 Get a Lil In has a massive speed figure edge and gets a great pace scenario. He may simply be faster early than the rest of the field and get an easy lead. Even if he doesn’t, he’s accustomed to sitting just off the pacesetter so any scenario other than a disastrous start works in his favor. Get a Lil In is the most likely winner of the day. #3 Castle Bull is a first-time starter with an excellent pedigree for this level and some reasonable works. The 5-year-old Holy Bull horse must have had some problems to be making such a belated debut but certainly rates a chance here on pedigree alone. #1 Jeffersonton showed some life at Charles Town and makes the huge drop into maiden claiming company for the first time.
Race 9#3 BIG JIM M projects to a picture-perfect stalking strip behind dueling leaders and offers solid value at 7-2 on the morning line. #1 FRANKIE W has the best speed figures but may have to duel for the lead while racing on the inside today and hasn’t raced since mid-January. #4 MI ROLLS looked very promising last summer at Colonial when he broke his maiden by 10½ lengths but he benefited from soft fractions that day and hasn’t run back to effort yet. #2 SALTY GREEN will ensure a fast pace off a string of 4½ furlong dashes at Charles Town.
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