Friday June 20 Horse by Horse

Tux n’ Tales – Looks like a nice claim out of opening night romp but new trainer Ferris Allen is forced to put him in a bit over his head here as there are no other races he fits in the first condition book. Tux n’ Tales should be quite tough later in the meet when he can find something like a $10,000 to $16,000 claimer but he hooks some monsters in this spot.

Lipan – You have to love his last race, a 2x allowance win over two next out winners. Normally he’d be a short price against typical $7,500 starter foes but it’s been a long time since he’s run well enough to beat Blue Sailor so odds are he’ll post an amazing 11th second-place finish.

Karakorum Dreamin’ – He’s much better on turf and thus better than his recent form looks at first glance but this spot is much too tough for him.

Love Point – She looked like a solid bet back after understandably tiring late in her first start of the season opening week here but appears way over head against tough starter allowance boys instead on conditioned claiming girls.

Golden Archer – You have to admire this hard-hitting 6-year-old with nine wins against just one second from 38 starts. He certainly fits at this level both turf tries were significantly worse than his dirt form so it’s hard to endorse him here.

Come to Terms – The Private Terms gelding is a bit of a wild card in his turf debut. You never know how much a horse might improve under those circumstances but its hard to see this rare foray outside of West Virginia-bred competition working out well.

Blue Sailor – He’s simply five lengths better than his rivals today. The versatile Northern Afleet gelding ran a bang up third in a stakes on the Preakness undercard after two dominating allowance wins. The deserving favorite does have a few knocks. He has not run as well in two tries over the Secretariat Turf Course as he has elsewhere and he did fail at 4-5 last out.

Better Than Ever – He was super tough in similar races last season and figures to improve in his second start of the season after flattening out a bit in his return. Better Than Ever will win if he lives up to his name but he does show two straight substandard (for him) races and hasn’t run well enough to beat Blue Sailor since last summer.

Slam Down – Talk about a cool horse. He came into 2007 as a 5-year-old with just one win but blossomed in low-lever starter allowances, morphing into an iron horse with 20 starts, six wins and seven other in the money finishes in a highly productive campaign. However, he has been off since December and his lone turf start was nowhere near good enough to win this.

Nonchalant – He has some tactical speed and his best is competitive here but he’s been off eleven months and has never run all that well on turf.

Race 2

Class Disco – He has the breeding to excel in turf sprints but it’s tough to take a 4-year-old first time starter with just one published work.

Corajoso – Two straight solid tries at this level make him a prime contender here.

Virginia Hero – He had an inauspicious turf debut opening week here, tiring badly against state-bred maiden special weight company but that was his first race in three months and he should be fitter today. You need to demand a price off that dismal race but its entirely possible that he moves way up today with the added fitness and switch to Karamanos.

Hyas Tyee – Both of his races were good enough to win this but he’s been off 13 months for a trainer mired in an 0 for 34 slump. He did run well in his career debut so there’s certainly hope that he can fire off the bench.

Foxys Jazz – There’s lots to like about this first time starter. He’s bred for turf sprints, shows a nice string of works and goes out for a high percentage trainer. The 4-year-old’s delayed debut has to be something of a concern but there are enough positives here to play him at any reasonable price.

In Classic Fashion – This Sky Classic gelding should really appreciate the switch turf and the drop to maiden claiming company today. He’s run better than any of his rivals but those races were last fall for a higher percentage trainer and today is his 2008 debut.

Primeru Peru – He’s run well enough to win this in the past but must contend with a six-month layoff today and probably lacks the early speed to stay close enough today. A late run for third or fourth that sets him up well for a stretchout next time seems more likely than a trip to the winners circle.

I’mafreighttrain – He’s been badly beaten in all four starts but does add Lasix today.

Song of War – He fits well here and has the pedigree to handle the switch to turf but there are several negative signals. The $140,000 yearling was dropped to the maiden claiming ranks after just one race and has been off five months. Trainer Rodney Jenkins is very good with horses returning from a break but he obviously doesn’t think all that much of this one and the price will be short.

Race 3

Dazzling Success – Speed on the rail with a short run to the first turn is always dangerous. The Cape Canaveral gelding should also appreciate the drop from open claiming company to this non-winners of two spot but it’s an open question how he’ll handle his first try on turf and he needs several lengths improvement to win this.

Waccamaw Drive – He ran a career best race last time to break his maiden despite steadying on the turn. The 4-year-old appears to have improved from last season’s solid form and certainly fits this level.

Stevie V.Z. – He had no chance last time trying to close into a glacial pace in tougher company. He’s failed multiple times at this level but certainly fits well here and is a logical exacta threat.

Generalissimo – Makes his first start in claiming company, just nine days after a tough to figure race at Colonial where he got an easy lead and was beaten less than a length by Southwest, a huge favorite who had been competitive in graded stakes this year. You can downgrade that effort based on the soft fractions or upgrade it based on the tough company line but either way he fits well here.

Legatango – The 3-year-old Dance Brightly gelding looked good dominating maiden claiming company here last week but that was a particularly slow race at six furlongs on dirt. He needs to step up in his turf debut.

Ovechkin – A dominating maiden winner here last summer, Ovechkin may well be ready for the race of his life today in his second start off a winter break. His 3yo debut was highly promising as he made up 5½ lengths in stretch despite getting trapped wide behind a slow pace. Any improvement today will make him very tough to deny.

Triplekin – He rolled at 13-1 last week in his turf debut to help cap a great four-win day for trainer Ferris Allen but must step up to a whole new level today. Facing winners for the first time is always a daunting task but he should sit a nice stalking trip today.

Race 4

Surafan – Throw out her last race against allowance foes. Surafan fits this $12,500 non-winners of two level much better. She’s probably a cut below the top contenders here but would be no real surprise to hit the board.

Daylight Fire – Needs to move way up in her turf debut to factor here.

Guardian Spirit – Ran well to win a maiden special weight in her turf debut last fall with a 54 Beyer. Her only other turf race was poor but it came against first-level allowance and foes. She finally gets back onto turf today in her first start off the claim and will be right there with any improvement from 2 to 3.

Gypsy Biker – Needs a dramatic turnaround to win this.

Pioneer Princess – It’s been more than two years since she’s run well enough to be competitive here but she does seem to prefer and goes for a trainer who scored with several equally improbably seeming horses last summer.

Wild Ball – Her best races win this and she certainly seems primed to run her best returning to the turf in her second race off a winter break.

Chautaqua Gal - Needs a dramatic turnaround to win this.

I Love to Say Yes – She ran several quality races against tougher competition than she faces today earlier this year at Tampa but it’s hard to say yes to a 1 for 45 mare.

Double Brilliant – Her recent form is pretty spotty but she’s run well enough to be competitive at this level before. She’s hard to endorse but really wouldn’t be a surprise and should be a square price today.

Dream Flower – Has never run fast enough to win this kind of race.

Race 5

Second Fiddle – One-run closer is certainly good enough on the class drop to succeed today but he may suffer from the total lack of early pace types in this field.

Lear Heights – This is a really nice spot for Lear Heights. He seems a touch better on turf and finally gets that footing again today while dropping from two straight open races to conditioned claimer today. He should also fall into a nice ground saving trip just a few lengths off a slow pace.

Wild Pal – Finally broke through for win number 2 in start 31 last out. He drops to an appropriate level today for impressive connections and certainly has the ability to win but its hard to imagine a 1 for 30 horse suddenly winning two straight.

Luckman – Yet another in an ultra-competitive race to drop slightly in class into a very logical spot. Luckman likes Colonial and has the versatility to either close from the clouds or stalk and still finish strong. He was too far behind a slow pace at Delaware last out and should improve today with that race under his belt after a two-month break.

Bo Diddley – Seems a bit off form lately but he did run very well against tougher at Colonial last year and the barn is hot right now so a turnaround shouldn’t shock anyone today.

Delta Moon – Hasn’t threatened the winners circle since being claimed in May 2007 but his speed figures are only a touch below the top contenders and he did win the last time Luis Garcia was aboard.

Jets Nice and Nasty – Appears to be a cut below these at this stage of his career.

Por Supuesto – Horse for course has terrible recent form but did get marooned in post 12 last time and owns an unassailable turf record other than that race. Both wins came on the Secretariat Turf Course, a third visit to the Colonial winner’s circle would be no surprise.

Race 6

Saucey Evening - $160,000 yearling buy has everything you look for in a first time starter - good pedigree, good works, high percentage trainer and high percentage jockey.

Hard Truth – Shows a nice bullet work at Colonial but is by an obscure sire and conditioned by a trainer with limited first-out success.

Glamorous Gal – She cost more than the average yearling by first-crop sire Soto and shows a solid gate work in preparation for her debut so she’s a reasonable longshot stab at 20-1 on the morning line.

My McIntosh – Was well beaten in her debut at Churchill but the trainer is typically better with second-time starters and she has a very nice pedigree. The Pulpit filly is out of Miss Mary Apples, the dam of stakes winner Miss Red Delicious, who became Empire Maker’s first winner when she won a maiden race at Colonial last summer for the exact same owner/trainer/jockey combination. Miss Red Delicious was also a well-beaten seventh in her debut before scoring at Colonial in her second start.

First Colony – Was a well-beaten third in her debut at Monmouth but should improve today for an extremely hot trainer/jockey combination.

Even the Gray – Slow works for the $1,500 yearling purchase make her hard to recommend.

Perfect Pet – She ran a good second on dirt last out for a very good 2-year-old trainer and owns a solid turf pedigree. She also owns a real experience edge over most of these.

Purse – Has been working steadily at Keeneland for a capable first-out trainer. She’s bred for turf on the damside and you have to assume she’s well meant if they’re willing to ship 8 hours for the race.

Delectable Cat – Very well-bred daughter of Tale of the Cat is a half sister to four stakes winners. She hasn’t worked particularly fast but has been training steadily since late April and should offer great value at anything near her 12-1 morning line price.

Ms Drewcilla – Shows one fast work at Colonial and has a sneaky turf pedigree but low profile connections and tough post dampen the appeal.

Race 7

Sporting Print – Unlucky gelding suffered from poor trips, trouble or both in his last three starts. Even his maiden win was almost a disaster as he clipped heels in midstretch before somehow gathering himself and continuing on gamely to prevail by a neck. He finally gets a good post position today and should improve second off the layoff.

Humming Along – Interesting to see Malcolm Franklin land here instead of on the Ham Smith horse. Virginia-bred has run several solid races at this course and distance but has been off for four months and has never been at his best off a layoff.

Seeking Flight – Makes her turf debut today for the same connections as Ghost Dancing, who won the Oakley Stakes here in her turf debut Sunday. Seeking Flight fits this spot well after breaking her maiden last out, beating a next out winner by two lengths.

Disco Dude – Improved quite a bit on turf last time but needs to improve another five lengths to win this.

Vicar’s Tune – Would win this if he’s as good as he was in 2006 but this is his start in 20 months and is likely a prep for a route race next time.

A Reel Buster – A repeat of his frontrunning maiden score here last summer would be very competitive today but he’s been off since February and hasn’t run all that well since his maiden score. You can’t completely dismiss a talented horse who will likely get the lead but he’s facing an uphill battle here.

Race 8

Lipsofanangel – She’s sure to attract attention with the meet’s leading trainer and leading rider in her corner. She shows some solid works but was awfully cheap as a yearling and the rail can be tough for inexperienced horses.

Nancys Broad – The only filly with experience in the field is already making her fifth start. She showed very little in her first three tries but found the drop to maiden claiming company to her liking last time, rallying for second.

Stan C Lisa – Tough to support a filly who only shows one slow work in preparation for her debut.

Mothers Eyes – Slow works for 0 for 2008 trainer.

Pappy’s Ava – Trainer Ham Smith is good with debuters of all kinds but is especially deadly maiden claimers. The leading trainer here the last two years is off to a frustrating start with nine in the money finishes but just one win from his first 16 starters. That one win came with another first time starter.

Romin Robin – She has a win-early pedigree and this typically low-percentage barn has been on a roll early in the Colonial meet. You’d like to see more than two works but that 36 1/5 drill on June 6 hints at some talent.

Malabar Daisy – Slow works and $1,000 auction price are pretty big turnoffs.

Twisted Vale – Trainer wins at 15% overall but is 0 for 25 with firsters. Outside post and moderate works further weaken her appeal today.

Race 9

In Tandem – He’s the favorite because he fits well on class, has the best speed figures and has high-percentage connections but that 15-1-2-7 record is pretty scary for win bettors.

Great Peace – 3-year-old is the most lightly raced horse in the race and appears to be on the improve. He tired last time at seven furlongs and should appreciate the cutback to six furlongs and one turn today for a trainer who excels in this kind of race.

Das Moose – Jumped up with a career best race two back that would almost certainly win this heat. He regressed badly last time out and has been off two months but fits well here.

Peace Rain – Needs to improve substantially after showing some late interest going 4 ½ furlongs at Charles Town last out but has every right to do just that in his second starter after a year on the bench. A return to his best form would be competitive here.

Melmont – He just doesn’t look the same this year and will likely be terribly overbet because of the connections.

Club Tango – Consistent sort doesn’t appear fast enough to win but looks like a pretty solid choice to use in 3rd and 4th in the tris and supers as he should be closing late.

Bee Not Forgotten – Couldn’t hold on despite getting away with a glacial pace last time. There are several quicker horses signed on for this race and he’s never shown much interest in passing horses late.

Skatin Jake – Hasn’t been the same since getting claimed three races back and appears to prefer turf.