Race 1
Why for Me – Total wildcard as a 6yo making his turf debut off a nearly eight-month break and a trainer change. He does fit at this level and has a reasonable turf pedigree so there are much worse 10-1 shots than this.
Jeffersonton – Ran a much improved race at opening night at Colonial, chasing an odds-on favorite around the track. That was his second start with Lasix and the 3yo may be on the upswing in just his sixth start. How he handles the lawn in his turf debut today is the most important question.
Mr. Jones – Should appreciate the return to turf today and improve upon a solid third against tougher 11 days ago.
House Cat – He’s never run fast enough to win and comes off an eleven-month layoff.
Jealously – Is the key horse as he takes the big drop from $25,000 to $8,000 today. He’s clearly the most talented horse in this field but that 16-0-4-5 record makes him awfully difficult to take at 7-5, especially since he’s been the beaten favorite an astounding 12 times.
Catch de Coop – First-time starter catches a beatable field but he doesn’t show much in the way of encouraging works and the trainer hasn’t sent out a debut winner in a while.
Crafty’s Wind – Should be on or near the lead early in his turf debut but he has been tiring at even shorter distances. Needs to show improvement to win today but the surface switch at least offers some reasonable hope.
Afternoon Jazz – His 3yo form towers over most of this field but he’s been off since November and his lone turf try was the worst race of his career. He wouldn’t be any real surprise but will certainly be an underlay as the second choice.
Race 2
Lord Willing – Needs to step up to compete against this group and was dismal in his only turf race.
Ambassador Dan – Fits well on class and speed figures but you can only muster so much enthusiasm for a 6yo still eligible for a n3L condition.
Sir Togo – Was a nice second at this level three back before struggling a bit in allowance competition. There are no real knocks on this horse but he appears to be a slight cut below the top contenders here.
Cherokee Spirit – He’s been terribly unlucky to still be eligible for this condition after a string of outside posts and tough posts plagued him last fall. He’s been off since January but has been working regularly for a successful layoff trainer so he appears to be a very legitimate favorite.
Eastbound – Came to life this spring with two straight dominant frontrunning scores at Charles Town. He didn’t run nearly well enough to win this in his lone turf try but that was his career debut and the three subsequent dirt tries were no better and he’ll be a nice price today.
Polish Dynamite – He should improve today in his second start of the season but he’s never been quite good enough to beat the top contenders here.
Command – Needs to improve several lengths to threaten today.
Late Launch – Nice to see him win last time after a 22-month break was followed by an equipment problem in his return and an off the turf disaster but the third place finisher in that win came back to run third as the favorite against $12,500 foes.
Beachcomber – Still-promising 3yo has never been worse than third in his brief 4-race career and should appreciate dropping from 140 pounds in an amateur rider’s race to 116 pounds of Jeremy Rose today. However, he’s way behind on speed figures and skips straight from a maiden win to n3L company today.
Race 3
Disco Indy – Couldn’t catch a loose on the lead Ready Eddie last time out at Charles Town but there’s a lot of speed in this heat and he’s proven he can win from far back before.
Scruples In – He’s run well on dirt before but his last two main-track races were below his usual standard so he might just want turf at this stage of his career. He can win on his best day but like a lot of this field he likes to mix it up early and he comes into today’s race off a two-month layoff that was preceded by two bad performances.
Ready Eddie – Ran a career best to handle Disco Indy two back but he failed at 4-5 last time and will almost certainly not make an easy lead today.
Blackhossnamdwhity – Needs to step up to compete with the top two here.
Chief Oshkosh – Enjoyed a promising 3yo campaign but has been off a year and moves from a 28% trainer to an 0 for 2008 conditioner today.
Race 4
Ponce – Only published work was a slow move back in April.
Invisible Cove – Shows a pair of solid drills but the pedigree learns more to the late-maturing side than win-early 2yo.
Captain Bry – Lots of positives at a good price here. By a good win-early sire, he’s also a half-brother to stakes placed turf sprinter Blue Sailor, who won his debut at Colonial for the same owner trainer. Captain Bry shows a nice string of works that should have him ready for a big performance today.
Hey Doc – Just two slow works tend to curb your enthusiasm.
Spike the Lip – He’s a half to stakes winner Citiroyal but the works are awfully slow.
Two Ours – Hasn’t shown anything in two tries so far but the addition of Lasix and switch to turf could certainly wake him up today.
Top Seed – Nice works, great first-out trainer and quality first-out pedigree = perfectly reasonable 2-1 morning line favorite.
Song Cycle – Ran a solid third in his debut and should really move forward today with that experience under his belt as he’s bred strongly for turf.
Kalik Mon – The other Ferris Allen entry also ran a solid third in his debut and is by City Zip, a sire with a lot of success in producing turf sprint winners.
Rowes Royal Chapel – Filly hasn’t been competitive in either of her races and draws poorly today.
Race 5
Racing Bridgett – She’s never run fast enough on turf to beat this tough group but her turf races came as a 3yo and she did improve last season. She’s coming off a long layoff but the lightly raced 5yo has plenty of successful experience firing fresh.
Sweet Issue – She’s never run quite fast enough to beat the top contenders but she’s only a few lengths behind and the deep closer should be ready for a top effort in her start of the year. She can win but a late rally for a smaller share seems more likely.
Miswes – Does her best running at this course and distance and seems to be in top form but this is the toughest group she’s faced in a while.
Placia – Lightly raced 3yo takes on elders for the first time today. A nice 2yo campaign was rudely interrupted by a rough trip when last seen in the Jan 1 Tropical Park Oaks. The $300,000 yearling buy clearly has plenty of upside but she is ceding a ton of experience today. If she improves as much as you would expect from 2 to 3 she’ll be very tough.
Broken Treaty – Nine-time winner must be respected after a good second in a slightly tougher spot last time. Her best might not be quite as good as some of rivals’ best but she’s very likely to at least hit the board.
Regina Madre – Has been running against much tougher for a long time and is likely to improve today after tiring late in her 2008 bow. She isn’t exactly a win-machine at 3 for 30 lifetime but fits this level nicely and has a real shot at starting a big day in her first race of the claim for trainer Robbie Bailes and owner Marshall Dowell.
My Favorite Tune – Two straight wins prove she’s back at her best after disappointing early in the year. She’s still unproven on turf but her only grass race can be excused as she was bumped at the start. The Maria’s Mon mare needs another slight step forward today after three straight improving races but certainly looks capable of doing just that for high-percentage connections.
Swampoodle – Needs to move way up in her turf debut.
Intriguing Story – If you can excuse a wide-trip sixth last out she’s in top form and adores this distance. However, breaking from post 9 with a fairly short run to the first turn doesn’t augur well for a ground saving trip today.
Matter of Syle – Had a great run on turf last summer that make her a prime contender as she finally gets back to the lawn. She will be very tough to beat if she’s improved over that 3yo form but she hasn’t raced since getting claimed in January and draws poorly today.
Race 6
Scrappy T – He was such a good horse in 2005 that it’s a shame that most people remember him more for colliding with Afleet Alex in the Preakness than his excellent second to the champion that day. He obviously hasn’t been the same since returning from two years on the sidelines earlier this year but has been working very well at Bowie recently. In addition to questionable recent form, his affinity for turf has been in doubt since a dull workout on this course caused his connections to abandon plans to run him in the inaugural Colonial Turf Cup.
Headsandtales – A try against Grade II foes in the Dixie didn’t work out but before that he ran a career best to get third despite a very wide trip in the Henry Clark Stakes. He should save ground today from post 2 and thus appears a very live longshot at a distance he adores.
Diamond Fever – He looked like a budding star as a 3yo last summer as he reeled off four straight wins, culminating in a stakes score at Delaware. Things went amiss in the Grade III Saranac but he appears to be back on track after a solid third in the Sussex Stakes, his first start of 2008.
Mint Slewlep – He looked like he turned a corner in April with an ultra-impressive 7-length allowance win and a fast-finishing third in the Jim McKay Stakes. The Slew City Slew colt bombed after a rough start in the Brandywine last out but several brilliant works in the interim seem to indicate that he’s ready to rebound today. The more pressing question is how he’ll handle turf after running eighth the only time he tried it, in last year’s Colonial Turf Cup. Mint Slewlep actually ran a good race in the ’07 Turf Cup, briefly taking a lead on the turn before tiring late. It seems more likely that the distance got to him than the surface that day and this 1 1/16-mile event should be right up his alley.
Lujan – He’s run once since 2005 and that was over hurdles here at during this year’s Strawberry Hill festivities.
Mach Three – He loves this distance and did finish first on this course last summer before getting DQed. A nice comeback win on Preakness day and a solid third in a tough allowance in early June show that the 5-year-old is still at the top of his game but his best isn’t quite good enough to win this.
Bastille – He hasn’t won since 2006 and this is a tough for his 2008 debut but Bastille loves this course and distance, including a strong second in this race last year, and trainer James Murphy has excellent stats with these kinds of layoffs.
Sharps Island – Is plenty good enough to win this type of race on his best day but we haven’t seen his best in over a year and he appears to be slightly better on dirt.
Salinja – Looks like a rock-solid favorite after racing well against since some heavy hitters this year, including a length defeat to Einstein, arguably the top turf horse in the country. He beat graded winner Chattahoochee War in early April after a brief freshening. Salinja was terrible last out in the Dixie, but so were a lot of other good horses over a wet course.
Irish Osprey – Has finished behind several of today’s rivals already. Is probably just a cut below the best in here.
Grato Recuerdo – Was a good fifth in this race last year. The 12-time winner will be on the engine early but is stepping up off a steady diet of claiming races.
Starvinsky – Was very good last summer as a 3yo but hasn’t quite gotten back to that level in two starts this season. He ran well before understandably tiring late in the Henry Clark but had little excuse when he failed as the 3-5 favorite last time. He’s certainly got the talent to win this and may rate a closer look if they put the blinkers back on after taking them off failed last time.
Hunting Print – Should move forward today in his second start of the year after a decent fourth in the Sussex and he was only beaten a length by Salinja in an allowance race last summer. The downside is that is most of his best races have come from on or near the lead and there’s a ton of speed here, including one to his outside. Post 13 also doesn’t help when trying to envision a needed good trip.
Midwatch – Veteran loves the Secretariat Turf Course and is absolutely good enough to compete here. However, he’s up against it today breaking from post 14 and facing a multi-horse scrum for the early lead.
Race 7
Libor Lady – Showed dramatic improvement on turf with two straight dominating victories but this is a quantum leap from those maiden and 1x allowance races.
Privately Approved – She’s been a good horse for a long time but has never been at her best in New Kent and has never run fast enough to threaten the likes of Smart and Fancy.
Tiger Fever – Was the favorite in this race last year against a much weaker field but threw in a rare clunker to finish sixth. She’s fantastic at this distance and has two wins on the course but has never faced this caliber of competition.
Smart and Fancy – Just a fantastic mare with a 10 for 18 record and wins on turf, fast tracks and wet tracks. If the real Smart and Fancy shows up, she wins. However, she has lost three straight including a loss to two of her rivals today in the The Very One last out. Normally you’d throw out an off the turf race like that but she’s every bit as good on dirt as turf so its tough to just blithely ignore that race and take 9-5 against a good field.
Lizzierna – Tough to ignore a horse with five wins, one second and a third in her last seven starts, but she’s just never run fast enough to win this.
Cat On a Cloud – Lightning fast filly was second in The Very One, five lengths behind All Giving but ahead of Smart and Fancy. Before that she earned a huge figure in nearly wiring the Mamzelle Stakes. She’ll face plenty of pace pressure today but is clearly good enough to win.
Ride Em Cowgirl – 3yo freaked last out in her turf debut and is obviously razor sharp off three straight wins. She certainly fits the profile of a rapidly improving 3yo well enough to be very dangerous today.
Impossible Tune – Another riding high on a three-race win streak but also yet another pure speed type who figures to get involved in very fast early fractions. This is probably the toughest field she’s ever faced and she does show a loss to Lizzierna.
Bikini Atoll – Ran some huge races at Tampa this winter that would make her very live here but has yet to ran as well on any other course and was beaten by four of today’s rivals in her last two starts.
All Giving – Versatile mare benefited from The Very One getting taken off the turf, beating both Cat On a Cloud and Smart and Fancy. She’s equally adept on turf or dirt and her stalk and pounce style should work well here if Karamanos can save some ground on the turn from this wide draw.
Fanlight Fanny – Has run some very competitive speed figures but she’s 4 for 8 in non-stakes and 0 for six in stakes.
Race 8
Palmilla – It would be awfully fitting to see Augustin Stable and Jonathan Sheppard win a big race at Colonial Downs with a daughter their 1998 Virginia Derby winner Crowd Pleaser. Palmilla is a nice mare but she’s never shown herself to be quite this class.
Lady Digby – She’s really come into her own over her last three races. She finished a good second to Champion Dreaming of Anna, won her first stakes and was a very strong second behind loose on the lead Roshani in the Grade III Gallorette last out. It seems only a matter of time before she gets her first graded win, why not today?
Indescribable – She’s been a terror on synthetic surfaces since last fall and ran a career best last time out to win the Grade III Arlington Matron. She’s a prime contender with a repeat of that race but hasn’t run quite as big in either of two tries.
Eclisse – Trainer Martin Wolfson won last year’s All Along with Silver Charades and Eclisse appears his best bet to repeat. The confirmed frontrunner should get the lead in here but may have to work a little harder than she’s used to. Her best races have come at this distance, highlighted by almost wiring a G3 in Florida before losing to Mauralakana by a mere three-quarters of a length.
Dancing Band – Scored a nice allowance win in her first start for Wolfson but hasn’t run fast enough to win this in a long time. She was a nice 3yo in ’06, running fourth in Virginia Oaks before scoring an excellent third in the Lake Placid behind Wait a While and Lady of Venice. A return to her best form today would make her dangerous at a big price.
J’ray – Multiple graded stakes winner must be thrilled to finally get away from Mauralakana after three straight losses to that foe. J’Ray threw in a rare clunker last out in the Sheepshead Bay but is prime win contender today.
Royal Pleasure – She’s never been quite up to this level of competition and this is a tough spot to start her 2008 campaign but she’s been working brilliantly for dangerous connections.
High Moment – Her best races earned very competitive speed figures but she’s never been successful in graded stakes competition is this is awfully tough grade III.
Valbenny – A top 3yo last season, Valbenny could really make some noise this season with just the normal 3 to 4 progression. She really had no chance in the Gallorette while racing behind a glacial pace. She’ll get plenty of pace to run at today and should be ready to fire her best in her second race off the layoff.
Rutherienne – Grade I winner is 9 for 12 lifetime and appears better than ever this year. She beat a tough field in the Jenny Wiley (gr. II) two back and was a good third behind all-word Precious Kitten most recently. The deep closer will be very tough to beat today with such a favorable pace setup.
Race 9
El Sultry Sun – He’s done very little wrong in a brief 5-race career with three wins and two narrow losses. His loss to Sporting Art in the Calder Derby can probably be forgiven since he drawn way outside and forced to race wide. He hasn’t accomplished as much as the favorites but still has every right to improve.
Court Vision – A terrific 2yo season didn’t evolve into the hoped for Derby dreams but Court Vision’s late-closing style and pedigree augur well for an even better second act on turf. He’s a full brother to Kipling, the sire of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner (and Colonial Turf Cup runner-up) Kip Deville. With a top trainer and top jockey signed on, all systems appear go for his turf debut.
Your Round – He was a good 2yo on turf and has every right to be even better this season as he finally gets back to that surface for the first time this season.
Sporting Art – Back to back Grade III wins in Florida stamped him as one of the top 3yo turf horses in the country. He was a disappointing fifth as the 3-5 choice in the Arlington Classic but he didn’t have the cleanest trip that day and has already proven himself to be good enough.
Baltimore Bob – Has something of a home field advantage as the only one with a race over this track and Colonial’s all-time leading rider aboard but he needs to step up big time on the speed figure scale to handle this group.
Nistle’s Crunch – One of three coming out of the Grade III Crown Royal American Turf , which looks like a key race after three runners came back to win stakes in their next starts. Nistle’s Crunch was a close-up third despite some trouble in the stretch that day and looks like a prime contender today.
Kentucky Bear – Lightly-raced colt has packed a ton of experience into a brief four-race career, suffering brutal trips in the Preakness and Fountain of Youth and flashing brilliance in a dominant maiden win and close third in the Blue Grass. He’s obviously talented and has the pedigree to run well on in his first start on turf.
Boss Laffitte – Didn’t do much in the American Turf but the Grade III winner helped validate that race’s strength by coming back to win the USA Stakes. He clearly belongs in this race and will likely get overlooking on the tote board.
Sailor’s Cap – His furious rally fell just a neck short of Tizdejavu in the American Turf. He looked awfully good at Churchill and looks even better now that Tizdejavu came back to thoroughly dominate the Grade III Jefferson Cup last week. Sailor’s Cap has already run well enough to win today and still has plenty of upside in just his sixth lifetime start.
Adriano – He looked like a superstar the last time he stepped onto the lawn, blitzing allowance foes (including Sailor’s Cap) at Gulfstream in January. Two bad dirt races surrounded an excellent polytrack win in the Grade II Lane’s End but its clear that he has tons of talent on anything but traditional dirt and will be very tough to deny today.
Race 10
Copelan’s Image – Shows some solid works for his debut but doesn’t have a whole lot of turf pedigree and it’s always tough to win around two turns first out.
Future Dwight – Was never a factor in his debut but certainly has every right to improve off that effort and has the pedigree to handle grass.
Mr. Murphy – Needs a dramatic turnaround.
Silver Pieces – Ran quite well to hold on for second last out despite dueling through fast fractions. A repeat of that performance probably puts him in the winners circle today in just his third start. He does need to handle the switch to turf and isn’t really bred for it but it’s a reasonable gamble at 6-1.
Warduty – Ran an improved race last week and finally returns to turf, which he seems to prefer. It all adds up to an enticing proposition at the 20-1 morning line price.
Rostebaran – Was probably best last out, finishing a valiant second despite being trapped behind an insanely slow pace. He’s obviously an improving horse that is an unassailable favorite today.
Goji Punch – Showed nothing sprinting on the dirt in his debut. He’s hard to endorse off such a performance but going long on the grass is a totally different game so a dramatic turnaround is within the realm of possibility.
Crew – Showed a lot of talent in his first start, making a big move on the turn before flattening out in the stretch. Tiring late was certainly understandable for a horse debuting at 1 1/8-miles while carrying 140 pounds. With added fitness and 25 fewer pounds he should be much better today. Upgrade his chances if Beachcomber runs well in race 2.
Protecteur – Has done very little in three starts but is bred to move to way up on turf.
General Skye – Tough to debut going long but he should be fit enough off a couple of long training races and the same connections already have a second in similar circumstances at the meet.
Cape Girardeau – Also suffered a rough trip in the same race as Rostebaran. Forgive that race and he fits nicely against this group.
Strategic Vision – Yet another from that glacially paced Rostebaran race on opening night. He was a non-threatening sixth but has every right to improve today while adding Lasix for his second start.
