Thursday, July 3, 2008

Thursday July 3 picks

Race 1

#3 LANGFUHR LAD ran well last time considering the wide post and six-month layoff he was facing. He will be on the lead today and should prove tougher in the stretch if he can relax a bit early on. The class drop and fitness gained from the first start back should help propel him back to the winner’s circle. #4 GOT THE SPIRIT was a visually impressive maiden winner. He’s well spotted for the difficult first try against winners and would be surprise as the lukewarm favorite. #5 HENRY’S HERO has earned several speed figures on turf that would win this. He’ll be closing late for at least a share today. #7 ADIOS MY LADY takes a big drop off a decent fourth but is just 1 for 34.

Suggested bet: Daily Double 3,4 w/ 1,2

Race 2

#2 ACTION TIME looks like the best closer in a speed-filled race. If he handles the switch to turf he should be flying late to get at least a piece. #1a DISTINCTLY FLEET ran two good races at this exact level last summer at Colonial. If he can get back to that form he’ll be tough today but it’s hard to ignore that 25-1-7-1 overall record. #1 MERCI PLEASE has also run well enough to take this but his lone turf try wasn’t anything to write home about. #6 MI ROLLS drops sharply today into a spot he should be able to handle. He’s run well on turf and run well at this distance, but this is his first turf sprint. He’s good enough to win but he seems like a need the lead type who won’t get it today.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 1,2,6 w/ 3,4,5 w/ 8

Race 3

#3 LOVE CONQUERS scratched out of a stakes race on Saturday and shows up here for a $16,000 tag. He’s clearly the best horse in race, loves the course and distance and gets an ideal pace setup so he’s supposed to win easily. #4 GOLD HOUSE is aggressively spotted at more than double the price he was claimed for last time. He’s 3 for 4 at Colonial and obviously has the confidence of the track’s leading trainer and jockey, so he probably deserves your confidence too. #5 TALENTED PRINCE drops from allowance company into a level he should be very tough at. He’s never been out of the exacta at this distance and should get plenty of pace to close into today.

Suggested Bet: Exacta box – 3,4,5

Race 4

#8 JUST YOU AND I KID couldn’t close enough against a slow pace last time but there’s of plenty of speed here to set up his late kick. The slight class drop doesn’t hurt either. #2 THE BOY FROM BRAY faded badly when he set the pace in his first two turf tries but he showed a new dimension last time, taking back and making a mild rally. A less extreme (in either direction) trip today could be just the thing he needs to break through. #5 AQUILA D’ORO takes a substantial drop in class and gets a much better post today. He’s got every chance to rebound today after tiring last time. #7 OPEN ROAD makes his turf debut for top connections. His pedigree is mixed for the turf – sire OPS SMILE was a pure turf runner but the dam and her progeny have no demonstrated affinity for it.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 2,3,5 w/ 1,2 w/ 1 w/ 2,5,9

Race 5

#1 JAZZ ENSEMBLE ran quite well last time in her turf debut. She was caught three-wide in a duel but held well for third. #3 ICY ONE O FOUR always closes menacingly and is almost certainly the most talented horse in this field but she seems perfectly comfortable settling for second or third, a troubling tendency when you contemplate taking 6-5 odds. #2 CORAL CAVE ran well enough to beat these in both of her turf sprints but she’s been off since New Year’s Day. She’s been working regularly, albeit slowly, for a solid layoff trainer. #4 MYSTERIOUS BANDIT hasn’t run well since 2005 and has been off since October but she has been working fairly well of late and has the back class to move up in her turf debut.

Suggested bet: Win - 1

#1 JAZZ ENSEMBLE ran quite well last time in her turf debut. She was caught three-wide in a duel but held well for third. #3 ICY ONE O FOUR always closes menacingly and is almost certainly the most talented horse in this field but she seems perfectly comfortable settling for second or third, a troubling tendency when you contemplate taking 6-5 odds. #2 CORAL CAVE ran well enough to beat these in both of her turf sprints but she’s been off since New Year’s Day. She’s been working regularly, albeit slowly, for a solid layoff trainer. #4 MYSTERIOUS BANDIT hasn’t run well since 2005 and has been off since October but she has been working fairly well of late and has the back class to move up in her turf debut.

Suggested bet: Win - 1

Race 6

#1 NIGERIA completely turned around his season with a visually impressive win nine days ago in his first start for red-hot trainer Earl Begley. This seems like a big step up in class but there are no Golden Hares in here. #5 M.E.’S SMILE deserves to be the 8-5 favorite off her recent form but she’s never run as well in Virginia as she has elsewhere and the barn has been cold at Colonial. #3 PICK UP THE TEMPO is clearly good enough to win this but her lone turf race didn’t match up to her best dirt form. It’s possible that that 1 1/8-mile race was simply too far as she tired after pressing the pace. Upgrade her chances if her half-brother Open Road runs well in his turf debut today in race 4.

Suggested bet: Win - 1

Race 7

#5 HALF MASK clearly has the back class to win this but he’s been off 11 months and was a beaten favorite in his last starts. He’s been working well and it is encouraging to see Karamanos take the mount. #2 TOURN AGAIN plunges precipitously in class from a $25,000 starter allowance to this condition $5,000 event. The talent is obviously there but how short a price can you accept on a horse like that? #9 MR. BARLEY has been terrible this year but he has a good enough turf pedigree to take a stab on at a big price.

Suggested bet: Pick 3 – 2,5,9 w/ 2,9 w/ 2,5

Race 8

#2 YANKEESSWEPTINFOUR was entered two weeks for $12,500 but scratched out of that and shows up here at the same level they claimed him for. He has been running well against slightly tougher and goes first off the claim for trainer Daniel Smithwick, who wins with 44% of such horses. #9 D D T AND ME has run well enough to handle this group before and his pedigree suggests real improvement today in his turf debut. #8 SANDBAGIN’ LOVER blew away $18,500 maiden claimers last time in his turf debut. This is a significant step up but he’s not far behind on speed figures and should still have upside in just his third career start. #4 OZZIE’S BOYS ran well enough to take this last year and should move forward off a decent return to the races at Delaware last time.

Suggested bet: Win – 2

Race 9

#2 MACEY H closed well to get fourth in his debut last August. He’s been off since but he looks like the most talented horse here and that debut effort proved he can fire fresh. #5 GHOST MARK has been working awfully slowly for his debut but is conditioned by a 28% trainer who can win with firsters and should be a square price today. #9 CANNON STATION would be very tough to beat if he can return to his New York form of last year but he hasn’t raced since Aqueduct and didn’t run well in either his debut race or his one other race off a layoff.

Suggested bet: Exacta box - 2,5

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