Monday July 7 picks

Race 1

#6 PATTON’S PISTOL broke slowly and passed a bunch of horses in the stretch to finish a promising fifth in his debut a week ago. He needs to improve to handle the top choices here but the pedigree suggests today’s stretch-out is what he wants. #7 BRAVE TROY split the field a couple of times against tougher in Florida over the winter. The class drop, trainer switch and added maturity should add up to a top contender today. #1 NEVER FEAR lacks speed but will be rolling late and owns the field’s top last race speed figure. #2 NAGGINBEEB is bred to move way up on turf and will likely be on the lead.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 6 w/ 1,2,7

Race 2

#6 CHANGE COURSE ran well to win the same kind of race on dirt last time. He’s historically better on turf and should fall into a perfect stalking trip behind a fairly fast pace. #1 MY HUSBAND won the pace battle but just lost the war going 5½ last time. The classy 7yo’s best races have come around two turns which he gets today after two solid sprints. #4 SAFELY RUN looks to break trainer Jerrell Roadcap’s amazing streak of seven seconds from seven starts at the meet. Safely Run added to the streak last time with a tough neck loss on dirt. He’s clearly good enough to win this but the likely fast pace works against him

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 6 w/ 6,7,9 w/ 1,2,5,7,9

Race 3

#9 RUNNING IN REALITY has been off since November 2006, running well as a 2yo in a MSW. The talent he showed then would make him a cinch here but things obviously haven’t gone his way in the intervening years. Trainer Douglas Fout is good with horses coming off such long layoffs and the talent is enough to take a chance on so long as he stays near the 4-1 morning line price. #7 MR. JONES was a good second behind a prohibitive favorite six days ago. #6 MR. PROVOST makes his turf debut after finishing second or third in six of his seven lifetime starts. The pedigree suggests the switch will be no problem, although none of his siblings have won on turf.

Suggested Bet: Win – 9

Race 4

#2 SKATIN JAKE finally gets back to his preferred surface for the first time since October. He was very sharp last time, dueling the whole way before getting beat a slim nose. It looks like all systems as he shortens up for the second start off the six-month layoff. #5 SACRED SKY will be a big part of the pace battle. He’s got the talent and may get an easy lead since there are no other need the lead types in here. #1 AWESOME RULER made a nice middle move before tiring going a mile in his turf debut. The cutback makes him a very live longshot today. #7 IN TANDEM was third, just behind Skatin Jake last time. The return to turf should also do him well. #9 PATH TO PERFECTION has the back to win but has been terrible lately and takes a massive drop today.

Suggested bet: Pick-4 – 1,2,5 w/ 1,2 w/ 2 w/ 2,5,8

Race 5

#1 WAZEE MOTO has two encouraging runs after a three-year layoff. He’s obviously healthier than ever and should relish the return to turf today. #2 REFORM THE LINE ran into eventual multiple stakes winner Jiggs Coz in his only turf race. That was two years ago and he hasn’t done much since but he certainly appears to be a better on turf and got a useful lightener with a late-closing second on dirt last time. #5 GLORY CAT ran reasonably well against much tougher in Florida this winter and should be primed off a dirt prep. #3 TABLE BAY was a good second at this level last time. Should be in the mix but hard to put a 7yo maiden on top. #4 MAYBE YES MAYBE NO has run well enough to win this before and may wake up on the drop today.

Suggested bet: Exacta box – 1 w/ 2,3,4,5

Race 6

#2 TITANIC WIN has been closing well going 5 furlongs this season. The extra sixteenth, switch to closer friendly track and plenty of speed all auger well for his Colonial debut. #1 CHEROKEE SPIRIT cuts back to a distance he likes off a win at a flat mile last time. Luis Garcia rode him to victory that day but shows up on Titanic Win today. #3 INDIAN MAX looks like an improving horse with steadily improving speed figures and a dynamic win last time. Hot trainer Robbie Bailes has been thwarted twice in his attempt to get Indian Max back on turf.

Suggested bet: Trifecta key – 2 w/ 1,3,8

Race 7

#5 BLUES APPROVAL ran a good second behind a 6-5 favorite at this level last time. The winner validated the race with close up fourth in an allowance at Delaware. Blues Approval should sit right off the pace, saving ground inside the favorite. #8 STIRRUP CUP takes the crucial drop to claiming company off a disappointing fifth in a 1x allowance last time. She’s clearly good enough but it’s hard to take a short price on a horse dropping in class off a poor performance and marooned in a disadvantageous post position. #2 DANA CALIFORNIA goes second off the bench with a sharp third against starter allowance foes under her belt. #6 OVERTHINKER should improve with a much better post today.

Suggested bet: Pick-3 – 5,8 w/ 2,3 w/ 1,3,5,7

Race 8

#2 REVELATIONS was terrific when last seen, overcoming a stumble at the start to win a tough maiden race in quick time. The downside is that race was a little more than a year ago, but Karamanos sticks with him over today’s 7-5 favorite and Revelations ran well fresh before in his debut. #3 CHASING THE PRIZE has undeniable talent with three blowout wins in six starts but he’s been a little too unreliable to take at a short price against at least one formidable foe.

Suggested bet: Win - 2

Race 9

More than half this field comes out of the same race. #5 SNICKLEBRITCHES finished third that day despite a very wide trip and should appreciate the stretch-out to one mile, the distance of his career best race. #1 LOUZEEANNA SWING was also caught wide and may have regressed just a touch off a career best two back. #7 SHAKY’S PRIZE beat them all to get second and may well do the same today but she’s the only one of the group without an excuse and will be a short price once again. #3 PERSIPANNY ROAD would have won this easily last year but has been terrible in 2008 and takes her second straight steep drop in class.

Suggested bet: Win - 5